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高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Jan 3, 2023 12:42

Davis double kill

What is the price of the stock?
Stock price = valuation × performance.
The valuation is a discount on future growth expectations. A growth stock with a future growth rate of 50% is worth a higher valuation than a value stock with a future growth rate of 10%.
Performance is how much profit is earned per share.
The so-called Davis' double kill means killing valuation first, then killing performance. For example $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ That's a great example.
How did Tesla's stock price soar step by step in the beginning? Pull up valuation first, then drive performance. Rapid growth, high price-earnings ratio. Performance increased again, and stock prices began to soar.
Now, valuations have been slashed to a level that is not much higher than that of traditional car companies, and performance has begun to fall short of expectations. The stock price fell further, from 400 (1200 before the stock split) to double digits.
How is the valuation calculated? Three parts: expected growth rate, sentiment buff, and risk-free interest rate. Tesla's growth rate has slowed, emotional aura has declined, faith has collapsed, and treasury bond yields have soared. The valuation eventually dropped below 20 times (it was actually seriously underestimated at the time).
Furthermore, in terms of performance, weak demand and increased competition will inevitably lead to a decline in profit margins due to price reduction promotions. However, compared to other car companies, including traditional car companies, Tesla's performance should still lead the way.
There is an exponential relationship between valuation and performance when it comes to Davis' double kill. The valuation was cut in half and the performance was cut in half, and the stock price reached the knee. Once everything is cut in half, the stock price will reach its fingertips.
Currently, technology stocks are generally under pressure. This wave of valuations has almost destroyed it; it is time to kill performance next. The financial reports of technology companies for the first two quarters of this year are probably not good. Be careful with the following stocks: $Apple(AAPL.US)$ $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ There's also $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ . As for Microsoft, there may be some lag $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ , I've mentioned that before. The real bottom is when Davis' double kill is over. It won't be until everyone is already desperate. I personally think this will not be possible until the second half of this year, or even next year at the earliest. But after reaching the bottom, I don't know how long it will be before it can rise.
The stock market opened higher this morning, but VIX also opened higher, so I think something is wrong; one must be deceiving people. Turns out Vix really likes to tell the truthI spend some of my money on a weekly no-brainer investment (I didn't count this part in my position). It didn't open yesterday, so it was traded this morning, and I was caught up in the beginning of the year $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US)$ 。
Speaking of VIX, the stock market has dropped so much in the past month, yet VIX is still low. What does this sentence mean, read it carefully
Again, don't touch ARKK anytime soon. I've been watching Sister Mu Tou; I've already written several articles. I also own a sark. There are many temptations to drive high and go low today, and it's really damaging enough. Originally, my pre-set Sark for this morning reminded me that I should increase my position, but I wanted to take stock of my total short positions first (my short positions are a bit heavy), so I didn't do anything, and I forgot about it as soon as I was busy Forget it, you can't be too aggressive in air speculation; you still have to be bullish on the stock market. $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$ $Tradr 2X Short Innovation Daily ETF(SARK.US)$
If ARKK wants to get back on its feet, he will have to wait until the Federal Reserve releases water. Note, I'm talking about releasing water. It's QE, not interest rate cuts. Don't mix these two things up. At the very least, you have to wait until QT is over.
I currently still hold 5% of my Tesla position, and the cost of holding the position is around 120. I wanted to reduce my position by 1% before the market this morning, but then I was busy forgetting about it, but that didn't matter. I didn't expect it to fall so hard today Let's wait until it drops to 100 and then increase the position, reducing the average cost below.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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高贵的阿德莱德
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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