高贵的阿德莱德 shared · Jan 4, 2023 08:29

Has TLT really stopped falling? Continue to be bullish on bonds.

Recently, I have been consistently bullish on TLT. Previously, when TLT was around 105, I noticed that TLT was due for a pullback. Based on the trend, I inferred there was a high probability it would drop by 5% to around 100 before rebounding, because of the presence of a gap and the double certification of the MA60. Later, Japan suddenly turned hawkish, and I was worried that Japan might sell off US bonds on a large scale, so I bought TTT as downside protection. In the last few trading days of last year, when TLT pulled back to 100, I reduced most of my TTT holdings and started to convert a small portion of TLT to TMF. On the first trading day of this year, TLT unexpectedly rose significantly. Could my previous post have been a miraculous prediction? As a small retail investor, I also felt a bit incredulous. Here is my previous post:

Noble Adelaide: TLT may experience a small pullback

Drawing conclusions now might be a bit premature, but 100 has currently become the resistance level for TLT, and it's not easy to break through, at least not worried about making new lows again.

Most stock-playing friends may not be very interested in TLT. But actually, TLT is quite interesting, and the volatility is not small. If you add a three-times leverage, TMF is still very exciting.

In any case, I continue to be bullish on TLT this year. Currently, TLT is my largest holding. My retirement funds have all bought bonds, although the bond funds for retirement pensions do not have as much volatility as TLT (the longer the term of the bonds, the greater the volatility), but I just don't have a positive view on the stock market this year. Apart from some regular investments for the long term, my main approach to the stock market is shorting, followed by bottom fishing. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Tesla. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The position is relatively small.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$

$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$

$Proshares Trust Ultrapro Short 20+ Yr Treasury (TTT.US)$

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