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Broadening wedge pattern: Will the market break out?
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iamiam joined discussion · Jan 9, 2023 04:08

Update Jan 8

I'm having a hard time trying to figure out what to call these posts, I used to call them "the week ahead..." but I was going out way further than a week and i started updating during the week and calling them updates, now my posts have devolved into just my thoughts at the time. I was too busy to post much, but now I've got nothing but time and can't make any to make a decent post . So here iam siting in the hot tub starting another post, let's see how this goes because there is so much going on I could write a book, but instead I'll just write a LONG post
but, Where to start?
The FED pivot - The FED will pivot and sooner rather than later... "But FED chairperson XYZ said..." - The FED is full of elitist liars and you don't even have to go back very far to see they lie... this is a joke based on reality, but you get the idea
Update Jan 8
the FED is IMPOTENT. All they have are WORDS, they are all bark with no bite. They are the Bond Markets dog, they do what bonds tell them to do. The reason for this is simple, they are an independent banking institution appointed by bankers (JPow is a LAWYER not an economist) and here's a chart just to bring it home
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A little history lesson pivot - 3 presidents have tried to separate the bankers from government
Andrew Jackson - Before the Federal Reserve (which is not federal and has NO reserves, but like everything in government they name it the opposite of what it does, like the anti-inflation bill *that will come into play later), anyways before the FED there was just as evil of a monster called the National Bank or the Second Bank of the US which was snaking their way into becoming the FED - until President Jackson quashed it, vetoed the US Bank from government and eliminated their debt standard (they wanted everyone to "prosper" by going into huge debt borrowing even after the first US bank had just went bankrupt. Expand west "just take a loan and we will own all your work, labor and toils") BUT INSTEAD Andrew Jackson slayed the evil bankers, eliminated debt policy, reinstated Gold & Silver as the ONLY constitutional money and STILL settled the south and expanded west. To reward him the bankers have now erased him from the 20 dollar bill and degraded his history, to calling him a tyrant. He was THE ONLY US PRESIDENT TO SUCCESSFULLY STAND AGAINST THE BANKERS. and they tried 2 attempts on his life - one on the capital steps where he beat his would be assassin with a cane, hence the cane in the cartoon beating the bankers (it was no secret who was trying to have him killed)
Here is a editorial cartoon from back in the day - Jackson and his cane, slaying the many headed monster - is it any wonder it was a many headed monster? Assassins, corruption & bought politicians, military involvement (war costs money, bankers love war and therefore the military *this is why 1.7 trillion dollar spending bills get passed without reading them, money for military and war= no need to read, just sign). The future finance of America was at stake, and one man stood against a storm. no wonder iam a decendant of that guy.
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Political cartoon: General Jackson Slaying the Many Headed Monster
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Abraham Lincoln - once again before the FED there was the banking cartel, who still wanted a foothold controlling the US after Jackson threw them out. The Civil War (see bankers LOVE war) gave them an excuse "How are you going to pay for it, here take our loan ie; debt at 26% interest" no joke that was their "deal".
“We gave the people of this Republic the greatest blessing they ever had – their own paper money to pay their debts…”  Abraham Lincoln
Lincoln printed over 400 million “Greenbacks” (debt and interest-free money) and paid the soldiers, U.S. government employees, and bought war supplies. The international bankers didn’t like it and wanted Lincoln to borrow the money from them, so that the American people would owe interest on the loan. Lincoln’s solution made this idea of high interest debt seem ridiculous. Shortly after Lincoln’s assassination, the government revoked the Greenback law which ended Lincoln’s debt-free, interest-free money. A new national banking act was enacted into law.
JFK -
Update Jan 8
Executive order 11110 June 4 1963 essentially stripping the FED of their ability to print/loan money... JFK was assassinated on Nov 22, 1963, and one of the first acts of LBJ (Loaded Bloated Johnson) after being sworn in was to repeal executive order 11110, by March 1964 all silver certificates were rejected and silver was removed from coinage, congress later took it out for good... I see a pattern 🗣truth ☠️
Update Jan 8
And here's a little quote from one of the founders of that cartel and his whore and her great great great asshole seepage
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so now you know who really manipulates the market, and NO clearly they do not give 2 cents about you, whats fair, life, freedom, any of it, its a zero sum game and we're all zeros. if you don't own it - they do (if your paying on it, it's not yours)...
here's another quote from another member of that cartel, and pay attention
Update Jan 8
and another meme, just to really really drive it home
Update Jan 8
OK enough with the history lesson. And finance lesson
So when the BOND Market says the FED will pivot, guess what, THE FED WILL PIVOT. here's a little funny meme to add to it
Update Jan 8
So this starts me on my second side track or pivot - NO ONE IS GOING TO TELL YOU WHEN THE MARKET BOTTOMS!!! No one is going to come out " The market will bottom tomorrow, buy here" and IT IS NOT GOING TO GO VERTICLE when it does, that is a lie, yes it will have a day when it goes 5, 7, 8% but that will be after the bottom.
ANYWAYS....
This was the reason why the markets went bullish Friday.
Now that gets us to where we are now, a future FED pivot is a reason for investors to dable into stocks leading to that good rally. Here is where the charts left us.
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$  Daily chart with some counts, iam not sold on this count (counts always change as the market does, they only give us a sense of direction and time). That is a triple bottom, inverse head and shoulders, call it what you want - I call it BULLISH.
Update Jan 8
as a comparison here is the 2008 bottom, in 08 QQQ shot past the 9 count on the final bottom and took longer but the drop was equal as a percent.
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Weekly chart - what is the significance of a dragonfly doji
Update Jan 8
Two dragonfly doji candlesticks
Rejection from key level shows that buyers are willing to buy from that level, and they are now stronger than sellers. That's why they are pushing the market up in the form of a long shadow below the candlestick's body.
Also notice the extra bullishness of the green higher doji. here's a page from DailyFX with a write up on the double dragonfly
Update Jan 8
What does 2 doji indicate?
A single Doji is usually a good indication of indecision however, two Dojis (one after the other), presents an even greater indication that often results in a strong breakout. The Double Doji strategy looks to take advantage of the strong directional move that unfolds after the period of indecision.
MY PREDICTION - this week
I expect the markets to continue bullish Monday and then either selling down or dropping and "waving" Tuesday on J Powells speech and on into Wednesday.
The 2 hr shows we should be bullish for another 4 hrs (noon or about 4 or so hrs before close) when profits are taken and positions neutralize going into Powells speech.
Update Jan 8
Here is where I stand on this... If the markets sell down on tuesday and Wednesday (by down I mean QQQ 263 maybe as low as 259) I will be buying... IF JPow says something bullish (i don't really see this) and the markets rally at all I will be selling.
That leads to Thursday and CPI release an hour before open followed by jobless claims soon after. Consumer Price Index - the difference in prices or how much inflation there is. I expect this number to come down, and down a lot. Which should send the markets up.
M2 money (basically any money in the hands of individuals able to be spent) a drop is DEFLATIONARY
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My prediction on Nasdaq Mini
Update Jan 8
My upward target is 284 on QQQ, with a short squeeze we could see any thing up to 318!
I'm not saying we have bottomed, in that the market won't go lower in the future, iam saying we have hit an investable bottom. VERY investable for COMMODITIES - I will go over these last
Update Jan 8
Bitcoin $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ I like a rally in Bitcoin - my prediction - this will hit 20k before 14k, I like the rally up to as much as 24000.
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iam playing bitcoin through MARA $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ My average is 3.82 and iam loaded on options. iam ready to run with this!
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I also expect a run in certain stocks.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Took all the covid money out of the bump, now we are back on the trendline.
Update Jan 8
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Same, Took all the covid pop out and Weare back in trend.
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I needed to elongate the chart to show the divergences
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oh look at that, those are the major components of the indicies, QQQ and SPY
COMMODITIES charts
Starting with Dr Copper. Copper signals STRENGTH in the economy, the market has NEVER crashed without copper crashing, and guess what? Copper is BREAKING OUT!!! How does a recession crash the markets and Copper go up? if no one is building where is the Copper going and who's buying it?
And while iam on the topic, there is money to build. Companies are still loaded with cash and continue to have construction and expansion needs and wants that have still not been met since covid.
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And now in no particular order - I like them all
Uranium - Will uranium finally breakout? $Uranium (LIST2430.US)$
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Gold - $Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$ Gold and silver are running really hot and extended. The buying pressure is powerful though and driving the price higher. I wouldn't be surprised to see this break resistance. $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ I don't particularly like it and may plan on doing something crazy with gold.
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Silver - Similar to gold but in typical silver fashion wild swings with many fake outs. Is there finally enough buying pressure to break the banks? have you been reading? no one breaks the banks, they just start a war to settle their accounts. but it's a fun thought. $Micro Silver Futures(DEC4) (SILmain.US)$  $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ Same as gold I don't like the extended buying pressure, it has to tire soon... My bet is owners are thinking the same thing iam. I can cash out gold and silver here and buy markets on the upswing. - but is it worth it? and so you see price unenthusiastically drift upward as sellers hesitate, my guess when these turn they will turn quickly.
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Platinum - Add Palladium with Platinum I call the the P metals and I like them both.
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FERTILIZERS/POTASH - This is a NatGas play, these companies uses NatGas to make Fertilizer, so their cost goes with NatGas. This would be a time to start investing as spring planting season should show an increase in demand.
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STEEL - $Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$ steel producer. Iron Ore another commodity used to make steel is also rising. CLF is a iron ore miner/producer as well. There are many companies for a steel play $United States Steel (X.US)$ , $Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)$, $Ternium (TX.US)$ etc, but CLF is outperforming.
Update Jan 8
Corn - $Corn Futures(DEC4) (ZCmain.US)$ Watching corn, I haven't listened to my farm report update yet... And this is why you listen to the farm report. Corn is being sold off hard, futures out to 2025 have corn below 450. The theory is, the same as the markets, they need to take the covid money out of the farming industry. While I don't see corn that low, I do see the downtrend could be stronger than i expected.
Update Jan 8
There has been a large hedge that is selling off futures contracts, price to continue to fall, will watch for any bullish reversal.
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Feeder Cattle - $Feeder Cattle Futures(JAN5) (GFmain.US)$ I also buy feeder cattle, this with corn, is my hedge on food prices. plus the cattle eat the corn too
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Weekly but at this angle the divergences can be seen better.
Update Jan 8
MINERS
GDX $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$  junior miners $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$  3x leveraged GDX & GDXJ $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$ Like oil companies, Miners don't need really high metals prices they just can't have low prices. Low energy costs help the bottom line also.
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GDXJ - Junior minors (think small cap)
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OIL - Ready for a long play. The 3 million barrels that need to be replenished in the strategic reserve have NOT started to be replaced. The bids the Biden administration put out to buy were REJECTED... That's right NO ONE WILL SELL THE US OIL. They won't tell you this, but thats what happened. The US thought the world would sell them cheap oil after they did everything in their power to bankrupt the oil companies and countries. Oil will hit 150 this year, I have 175 but that might be too much, we will see.
Looking to break trend on the weekly, I see oil "wandering" for another month or so, there is another month before a 9 count to a reversal on the Monthly chart. I DO NOT see oil dropping below 70 I really don't see it above 90 either yet. When it start approaching 90 get ready.
Update Jan 8
I like OIH best in the ETFs. I actually think OIH goes up while XOP goes down in the near future. OIH didn't run like XOP did. My Suppliers were laggards but now is when  $Baker Hughes (BKR.US)$ , $Schlumberger (SLB.US)$, $Halliburton (HAL.US)$ assume the top spot and OIH will again sit on the Oil throne.
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Real Estate - ???? YES REAL ESTATE, like other commodities, this is a SHORTAGE play, there are NOT enough houses. Once rates fall and house prices fall into the sweet spot, THIS WILL BOOM!!! I have that sweet spot at under 5% (my first home loan was 5.75 and that was incredible, i couldn't lock it in fast enough) and the current housing price drop is sufficient to allow a surge into housing and home building. Any further deflation in housing prices and potential falling rates is a bullish set up.
Forget a surplus, we aren't even close to even
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HOMZ $Hoya Capital Housing Etf (HOMZ.US)$  An overall home  ETF, builders, furnishers, suppliers, insurers basically everything you need for a new home.
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And that leads me to INFLATION, the truth, INFLATION IS HOT!!!! yes it's coming down for everything that doesn't matter, but the FED tracks things that don't matter like - used cars, Consumer electronics, and food transfer (this is how the government tracks food inflation, if steak goes up 20% but the alternative *beyond meat, chicken, pork any meat sustitute* only goes up 5% the inflation is 5 since you could just buy that instead) then there are the base products like gas both Natgas and Gasoline/Diesel, Lumber, Steel (iron ore) that have gone down, way down, but like I showed, are coming back strong. Inflation numbers should plummet but only temporarily, Inflation is coming back HOT! but that's in the future, and yes it will be bad.
The DOLLAR - The dollar should rise again after FED meeting on Feb 2nd, until then we should fall to the 101.3 bottom zone
Update Jan 8
And finally VIX $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY.US)$ VIX did something odd, when it hit the drop and reversal point it went FLAT. Historically this should have reversed to the 30s but it didn't. Calls were LOADED to one side and they are getting wrecked. Watch for this to break below 20 and break the bears.
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Wow that was long and had a lot. iam tired and am way past when i wanted to post this, Be Safe, Be Careful, Be wise and as always
Good Luck
Update Jan 8
Some only see the storm, while others see the perfect wave. Sail on.
I tried to cover commodities and a general market direction, if I forgot anything let me know. Hope you enjoyed
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iamiam
Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor, Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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