UPDATE Jan 11

here is an update to my update from Jan 8... "just dropped in, to see what condition my condition was in... yeah, yeah, oh yeah - What condition his condition was in"

a little Kenny Rogers for you, and I may have just been dreaming

OK enough of my tom foolery, here we go.

I think so far my post pretty much nailed it -

I f you want to review the past read my Update Jan 8 post, I will probably reference it a lot.

The market ran up on Monday and started selling off right before noon just as I had thought. Then today we sold down and went up. I was hoping for 265 expecting 263 and instead got 268.97 so what does that mean?

a pic from my Jan 8 post

today: look at the bollingers "pinching" and indicators are turning more bullish.

it means the FEDs words now mean nothing. JPow didn't move the market at all, he was the teacher from Peanuts

The markets have decided the Bonds are leading the FED... But should you believe it?

Mara ran HOT, CLF and other commodities consolidated, QQQ drifted up.

Let's start with the general markets, I use QQQ and sometimes use Nasdaq Mini (or Nasdaq100) the charts all generally do the same thing but here are the differences. iam only showing them this time because something is happening, but commonly when I say markets and give numbers it is referring to QQQ and or Nasdaq 100

The dow is pushing against a long trendline (blue dashed) with the weekly 200MA (yellow also the 200 WMA is what defines a bull or bear market. above = bull, below = bear) 150MA (teal) both well below the current price, providing multiple years of lift and support. We are fighting the important 100MA (investors from 2020) for direction. All these meeting together make this is an important inflection point, to put it mildly. Here is the obvious, there are 2 directions to go, but go it will, and it will be powerful. It will either break through the trendline or get rejected and fall to the bottom of the channel. This is the line that the FED wants to keep it below.     - There is so much going on here I could write a book, but I don't have the time, just know because this is the stated FED target, doesn't make it so. -

notice the volume this summer was higher than the covid bottom, and look at all that green after.

Here is a longer view of where we are. As shown it was the second round of stimulus that sent the markets roaring, look how long it took the FED saying "transitory" when everyone could see what was happening, they should've raised rates the second the stimulus was passed, but elections must be won. Now the MARKETS have taken the money, speculation and exuberance out for them. We are back in trend, we have successfully round tripped covid. Will the FED break it? This is why the markets are not listening and fighting the FED. The markets tried to tell them to raise earlier but they failed, now its telling them to stop, what will they do?

That's a little background before I get into Nasdaq, and there is a reason, I said something is happening, but first a little history I know , I know but my brain is so full it needs release sometimes

Nasdaq started its downtrend almost 2 months before the other indexes, this is mostly *rates driven, and it fell further, the Dow dropped 9%, S&P dropped 20% and Nasdaq dropped 33%. If you have followed me for over a year, first I appologize , and second, you know this is why I started short positions on QQQ and traded and followed QQQ, bigger swings = bigger payouts. Now that also means it will recover first, when rates ease growth continues value comes back. Starting last week for the first time in over a YEAR the Nasdaq started to OUTPERFORM the other indexes!!!! it was even GREEN up .66% while the others were red.

*growth or tech need to borrow lots of money to grow, so when that money becomes expensive to borrow that increases cost and reduces their ability to grow...

Also the FED didn't announce they were raising rates until January, so how did iam and the market know to sell tech when the other indexes hadn't started selling off?... This goes to what I said about bonds leading rates, the bond market was raising rates before the FED. Believe it or not the market can function without the FED interference, and do a much better job.

So there is the background going into looking at the Nasdaq chart.

- but the past is the past the present is now and the future is tomorrow  -

Those are the long charts, let's see what tomorrow may bring.

I don't believe it will reach 275, it may, but I see a lower price fill.

But Tomorrow or today sheesh, but Wednesday DOES NOT MATTER, it's Thusday iam waiting for. I already predicted why I believe inflation would come in much lower. revisions are coming in dropping expectations, to be honest I don't like this, it makes it prime for a miss. I still don't see it, I see numbers coming down still.

Also I heard some things today, that the markets were pricing in the CPI and is dependant on earnings. I see this but only partially, I still believe CPI will be a major catalyst.

I was going to make a longer post but this will have to do, I appologize. I will try and get a better post out well before tomorrow and CPI. I would be cautious going into CPI.

Be Safe, Be Careful, Be wise, and as always

Good Luck