Weekend Update! for Market Open Jan 17
Another Bold Post, hopefully you find it entertaining and informative. Excuse my "flair", I need a creative outlet while trapped in my lair on my snowy mountain. I injured my back setting up new food storage shelving ![]()
, so again from the hot tub, Here we go -
Last - FRIDAY THE 13th -
How most investors felt!
-MEANWHILE- back in the lair.
Why? if you read my posts you'd know why... I don't post it unless iam in it.... I know in November i said I was leaving the market at the end of the year,
but I also said I saw something in December - and I still see it, iam FULLY INVESTED and BULLISH... When I say I saw something, I see something and there is NO reason for me not to be invested, this is when fortunes are made. or lost, to be fair, someone is always on the other side. We have run hot, hopefully futures cooled the markets off for another run. We are nearing a natural pullback area soon (around 282-284 QQQ) How the market responds is important. The markets need to keep holding support to advance (currently 265 but 260 as a weekly base from the double dragonfly doji)
Random chart to break the monotony GOLD $E-micro Gold Futures(FEB5) (MGCmain.US)$ Gold looks like it still has upside. This is an extended heater. Am I in it - yes. Would I recomend it - NO, not on a heater like this, it pulled away from the Moving Averages and is NOT a good time to invest, it is a time to sell. Can it go up- Yes obviously to 1990 that's a big jump, but at this level I can't tell you how it's going to do it IF it even does. This is ripe for a selloff when it gets to where it's going.
$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ Can it go up?- YES. Will it keep going up?- doubtful much longer. Best to let it get to where it's going before making a decision. Let the heater run out and exhaust itself.
Stick around, I'll make this a long post... but just like with time, the longer it goes, you never know what you'll see.
I like the Alice theme, I'll go with that, because iam about to take you Through the Looking Glass into a world where everything is backwards; running keeps you stationary, moving away from something brings it towards you, up is down and down is up with the world laid out in front of us as a chess board.... (the key is that this is the reality we live in)
in this post iam the Red Queen in the first metting with Alice, neither antagonist nor protagonist, just explaining the rules of chess - specifically - Promotion, from Pawn to Queen, IF you can successfully reach the eighth level, on the opposite end of the board... If you own commodities CONGRATULATIONS your on the fourth level (Pawn boarded the train and advanced 2 spaces on the first move)... Remember this is Through the Looking Glass where everything wants to prevent you from Promotion and nothing is as it first appears, some knights will help while others are sent to harm, and all you'll hear around you will be nonsensical and tricks... "I'll pay you two pence and jam every other day" said the White Queen. "But I don't want any jam today" replied Alice... "Jam tomorrow and jam yesterday, but never jam today you'll be paid"... it's a land of tricksters and one must be able to navigate their game.
It is my belief we bottomed in October, the week starting the 10th. I think we should have a strong week, but are approaching a pausing point. The bulls have made a good run but soon the Bears should retake control. When the bears take control I want to see 265 hold. but 263 to 260 is ok. Under 259 I'm looking to see if any support holds. With the double doji the last few weeks 260 should hold. $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
There is something that just kept ringing through my head and I couldn't place it, "Covid money hasn't even begun to be spent" i kept hearing this and trying to see where it fits, and i concuded it fits like this. The Money is still working through the economy. 7.5 trillion, with around 2.7 earmarked for construction But what about inflation? I believe we are now in a FED inflation wave (*) inflation will spike and fall as the FED raises and lowers rates chasing inflation. The commodities will keep inflation high. But the money will be spent, and when money gets spent it brings the market with it (in the sectors its being spent!) Rates should do the same contributing to the equivalent yo-yo in the housing market - runs on homes to beat rates followed by cooling, as rates go up, then another surge - rinse and repeat. this is going to get wild... The rich will always buy houses, because they get far cheaper rates and they can always pay cash. As an example, with the rates at 20 year highs Farmland is setting records for price per acre, up to 50k! so long hobby or family farmer. This is the arena of the wealthy now. You want a little plot to grow a garden, better fork over a lifetime of food for it ![]()
$10-Year Yield Futures(DEC4) (10Ymain.US)$ sitting right on support, and doesn't look to have any. theoretically this could go either way, personally I think it drops below 3. We could bounce here between 3 and 3.5 (staying one percent above fed target rate) and build for the next leg, I could easily see this, and that would have a muted effect on the markets as this level has been priced in.
When rates fall below the current trendline, money will flow and surge into the market.
(*) I believe we have entered the final phase of a Nation's collapse or removal and replacement as a world leader (this may go on years, there is a lot of money that needs to blow through first) this is the final phase in every economic toppling throughout history. First - the money gets debased (we have been debasing since 1973, 1913 actually with the creation of the FED, 110 years of falling currency is not good on a long scale) remember the goal of the FED is to own EVERYTHING! at their core they are an independent BANK that is trading paper for collateral and that collateral is Everything you own - the national debt now sits at Balanced against the value of its commercial assets, the federal government had a combined total of $124.1 trillion ($124,137,000,000,000) in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations at the close of its 2021 fiscal year (it's grown larger). This shortfall equates to:
$373,672 for every person living in the U.S.
$955,407 for every household in the U.S.
5.4 times annual U.S. economic output (GDP).
29 times annual federal revenues.
86% of the combined net worth of all U.S. households and nonprofit organizations, including all assets in savings, real estate, corporate stocks, private businesses, and consumer durable goods such as automobiles and furniture.![]()
they're stealing America from the citizens, and they have your "elected" officials approval and consent to do it. Eventually we are all going to pay for the "free" money they've been spending. covid shots were "free" yet pharma made trillions off it- so where did the money come from? YOU! all those free shots you are now paying for through egg prices and gas prices, you see inflation is a tax that you have to pay without realizing why your paying it, that's why the FED and powers of government WANTED inflation.
$373,672 for every person living in the U.S.
$955,407 for every household in the U.S.
5.4 times annual U.S. economic output (GDP).
29 times annual federal revenues.
86% of the combined net worth of all U.S. households and nonprofit organizations, including all assets in savings, real estate, corporate stocks, private businesses, and consumer durable goods such as automobiles and furniture.
Here is Treasury Secretary Yellin in 2019
"But it could be that the current system has problems, and it might be beneficial to rethink whether or not the current system is ideal. [It might be worthwhile] to consider a system more like one in which if there were a long undershoot then, yes, there might be a conscious attempt to want to let inflation run"
This has been in the works for a long time, you can read about yellin singing the praises of inflation all the way back to 2010 under the Obama administration, if you can find them, I'm noticing more and more of her speeches are getting white washed (cleaned up or removed)
Second - an overextended military that can no longer hold territories. Afghanistan was a sign to world economists the US was ending, thus the step up in world threats - they sense weakness
Third - political and social unrest at home Um, not even going to say anything...
Fourthly - The big 3, everytime, Famine (the entire middle crop producing states are drying (the "dust bowl" from the 30s returns, everything is cyclical), Pestilence (again no comment), and War (I abhor war, because I see it for what it is, and not what it's sold as... War is how bankers settle accounts.)
Hahaha that was a lot to get to here. I warned you I was taking you Through the Looking Glass. Well here we are now, your chance at Promotion.
I shall not chortle long, O' Frabjous day, Callooh Callay
My plays: This past week, still holding portions in all, trimmed most (ie- sold calls) i was foolish *not because i sold when i did, but why i did, i have repented for my errors and paid for my sin. Now i must make restitution to myself. I reloaded into Tesla - tasty dips ![]()
i guess that makes me overweight ![]()
watch the adjusted price targets start to come out.... To show the change from my Jan 8 post to now, price will be in orange and the prices shown on the upper left of the charts should be Friday's closing price.
Cliffy!!! $Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$ Was issued a Buy rating on Thursday with a price target of 26 ![]()
![]()
I'll see 26 in the Electric Arc steel Furnace fires of hell, my target is 45 on the light side... in time (July-ish ![]()
I'll show and tell you why later 🏗🌋)
18.65 / +2.27 / +12%
My Bitcoin play is $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ My average is down to 1.02 ![]()
sold a bunch of calls Friday, cashed out my spreads. A Good Day/Week ![]()
still lots of 6 calls ![]()
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ 16952 / +3965 /+24% RIPPING!!! That is strength. Oh man this wants 24k, if/when it does it should pull back - DO NOT BE AFRAID, this is wave 1 of a new beginning... Maybe, caveat- this could be the final retracement before the "final" flush under 10k. iam not in that camp UNLESS something structurally changes with bitcoin. The only way to tell for certain is if we break a new low on the retracement back from 24000ish *signals should indicate a move prior. Otherwise I believe the drop, no matter what you hear (OTHER than a structural change) will be a natural profit taking zone. Just like with Gold at 2000 *a little before* early investors will take profits, sell calls, buy puts that are being panick sold because the price is flying. Then when price drops they do it again in reverse. Welcome to the Looking glass.
My bitcoin play was/is Mara
4.28 / +3.40 ! / +79% !!!
i used futures in my Jan 8 post, the futures price was 23.98, Friday's futures closed at 24.30 / +.32 / 1.3%
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ My new favorite, no more ccxi, had to find a new love *outside commodities where iam a hoarder, i thought i would dip a toe in for a rebound now I'm fully invested, this is a cash generating yo-yo, and E-V-E-R-Y-T-I-M-E it dips I accumulate, today was another gift. To those shorting it, I salute you, thanks for the future fuel.
-You are awakening the dragon-
Tesla price reduction was BRILLIANT! it puts 2 models in the government rebate eligibility category - so if you could get the base crap Chevy or Ford - OR - a Tesla model 3 or Y and get the same rebate, Tesla wins hands down. in a price war Tesla wins hands down. AND Tesla is not a damn car company it is TECH and it is the BEST tech.
Batteries- Space- A.I.- Boring... the future of EV everything trucking, flight, light rail, military, whatever genius idea pops in Elons head next... To be fair and honest SpaceX and starlink are separate companies but Musk has long stated tesla stock owners would recieve preferential status should he ever IPO a private company, hopefully that includes Twitter as well, anyways all you have is his word on that. But SHOULD any of those IPO I want in on that, however I can.
Tesla Chart: hard to see, apologies. Pay attention to my Parkinson hand drawn line in white, while it is true I struggle with drawing, that line is intentionally wavy so it sort of mimics price. And look at the similarities in the indicators.
113.06 / +9.34 /+8.3%
OH YEAH!!!! Baba from 58 to 117 and you don't think Tesla will go 104 to 167? psssaw, easy peasy. Elons going bear hunting with some super spiced up electric fire Arc flame thrower.
Here are the other tickers I showed on my Jan 8 post
Onto the commodities: THIS IS A COMMODITIES SUPER CYCLE and you just saw wave 2 (down) complete?! you will see some "crazy" price targets but when all these stocks were pennies and under 5 dollar stocks you probably thought I was crazy too (I was new and don't think I had any followers when these were pennies, trying to figure out what kind of place this moo community was)...
Why is it a commodities super cycle? ![]()
Simply put - DEGLOBALIZATION, covid caused the world to realize "on demand" delivery is not feasible. covid was a world awakening from the upside down economy we had created, after sending manufacturing overseas for 50 years it became clear if a world event were to happen, the US is a net product vacuum that could feasibly leave the world with an empty bag.
It also became clear everyone needed the return of manufacturing. The real reason there is no border, the US needs workers, you hear it everyday in the jobs and business reports. They will allow them to continue to flood in then next is worker availability, legally they can't work, this will be fixed by government, in some sort of amnesty bill, it doesn't matter what you think want or vote for, your not the machine running government. This is also why tech is important, tech is replacing workers. So government passed the "bipartisan" "CHIPS" bill to bring microchip manufacturing back to the US. they also passed the "build back better" which is a crappy infrastructure bill, too little money for actual projects, too much for red tape Red Tape and "pork" or "pet projects" or "tack/add ons" or anything like it, is code for campaign donations. And some people think funding campaigns is the solution? you fund their reelection campaigns everytime you pay a tax. but I digress, the point is MONEY IS GOING TO BE SPENT TO BUILD/EXPAND. This is why tech got slammed (did Walmart lay anyone off on the product side? NO, did McDonald's, Chevron, Cleveland-Cliffs, are any mining companies laying workers off? HELL NO, this is NOT a recession (to my amazement we HAD it, and pushed it into the future). This is a reset (dont like the way the game is going, RESET. What are they resetting?... You!). We might be entering the roaring 20's, but here's the thing with the "roaring 20's" it was only "roaring" for the wealthy, after they hoarded all the money from the middle class (those able to invest for thier "future" ironically the same ones that called for the creation of the FED, and continue to call for government intervention 🐑 whenever government intervene IT IS NOT IN YOUR INTEREST) the rich went on an elaborate orgy of excess, through the party's and events it will become clear if it isn't already that elite have a very different set of rules and a very different life thus it will create a massive covet gap, and just like then the powers that be will start a war to take your mind off what happened and unite against a common "enemy" but WAR is just how bankers settle accounts.
in the chart below I stuffed a lot of information. But I want to point out my comment in black. In 1933 the US BANNED and CONFUSCATED ALL PRIVATE GOLD (US loans were due to the banking cartels so they TOOK the wealth from the people... still think your house is safe?). To hide the money the wealthy sent it to Germany. Why Germany? because their government and social construct was seen as superior to ours at that time. The wealthy have always and will always love nazis and fascism (that's why we truly have a fascist society. They seek to impose their rules onto you. Fascism is merely the marriage of government and business *neither of which have your interests in mind*). So now we have banking cartels owed hundreds of millions in gold that is in Germany...
(nazi gold hoard 100 tons or about 263 million dollars at that time)
The reason the wealthy want to impose rules on you is simple. THEY WANT TO KEEP WHAT THEY HAVE, AQUIRE MORE, AND PREVENT YOU FROM COMPETING. That is the one commonality between 99% of them, they are nice and cordial maybe even helpful until you pose competition... A great example is the owner of Bass Pro Shops who just built an amphitheater in the Ozarks. after he excavated 2 mountains completely altering the landscape he promoted and bought politicians and now they put strict "environmental" laws protecting the "beauty" of the area (nothing more can be built). While he is paraded as a "environmentalist" the true goal was to get what he wanted and prevent any future competition. DO you think he gives 2 s* about the environment? After he just leveled 2 mountains for a better view? NO none of them do. They are simply killing competition and cementing their positions of power.
$VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$ Junior minors, think small cap miners.
39.48
$MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$ I can't believe I sold at 47 ![]()
went to 60 but is pulling back now.
Dr Copper- the strength of the economy, no market has EVER crashed without copper crashing. $Copper (LIST2510.US)$ Copper is STRONG
3.92 : +.22 : +5.6%
Housing Market - I believe the housing market will BOOM! It's a shortage play, not nearly enough houses. $Hoya Capital Housing Etf (HOMZ.US)$
33.04
$VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)$ My choice in the oil sector
305.58
$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP.US)$ I thought it would start to fall in comparison to OIH, I guess not.
132.89
1104
11.66
Potash/Fertilizer - Pulling back with NatGas, good entry points to dip a toe in. The best way to play commodities and their wild swings is to buy in red days spread out over time. Could this go lower? - YES, but over the next year will rocket.
30.37
Whew, and iam spent, I don't even know if I have the energy to proof it. I think I'll just say this was done off the top of my head, so I appologize for errors or inaccuracies.
This week is short but important. On Thursday I believe we have some sort of debt deadline (this is political posturing, the US will not default for many months to a year after a debt limit is exceeded). That doesn't mean it wouldn't affect the markets. PPI is also released tomorrow before market open. Producer Price should continue to come down. These are more dependant on commodity prices, because they are what the manufacturers pay for goods. If PPI comes out under we could have another big day.
Futures are down, but only slightly. I like that, let's see if we can get a good push today.
not my best work, wanted/had much more but actually pared back ![]()
iam a little distracted, but WHAT A PREMARKET SO FAR! CLF 21+, MARA 8.60+, TSLA 125+
Remeber - Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and as always
Good Luck ![]()
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
10KFollowers
230Following
43KVisitors
Follow
iamiam OP : Hahaha
Imso : sir so is it ripe to enter position into uuuu for long term hold now or wait?
iamiam OP Imso : yes on red days it's good to start a position. I would slowly enter over the next few weeks on red days
枫叶- Imso : If you plan to invest for the long term, you can now set up a low position first
warrior-sailormoon : Iamiam ,when mentioned about commodity syoer cycle, especially for gold , will gold drop drastically right to the bottom like what happened on year 2022 oct and up again from there?
warrior-sailormoon : I sold all my gold calls but left with roughly 200 shares of GDXU with average price of 48. I’m keen to load up more rather than sell off those. It will be good if can hear from ur advice. Thank you
iamiam OP warrior-sailormoon : I will look when I do my post... but I believe miners may continue to break out while gold may go down. but gold has a lot of buying pressure, so I will take a long look.
iamiam OP warrior-sailormoon : that is my inclination, but we will see.
warrior-sailormoon iamiam OP : Thank you
. Thanks in advance 
I holding cash to standby to load again when crash down. But it will be good if can hear what’s the expert says
102231032 Imso : It is now in a volatile downward trend. There will also be a slight correction in medium- to long-term increases. Long-term holdings are not recommended