There is an absurd fear that the stock market will skyrocket
First of all, I wish all the cowboys a happy new year and lots of financial resources!
Like many people, I couldn't get my head around the stock market in the past two days. Why did it rise so fast all of a sudden? Is the bull market back? Am I missing the best time to bottom out?
Let me start with my thoughts: 1. I don't think the bull market is back; it's just a break from the bear market. There will definitely be a second half, but it's not easy to say when it will come and whether it will be more intense at the moment. My personal guess is that the bottom will not be reached until later this year, or next year. I'll explain the reason in more detail below; if it's too late, I'll talk about it next time. 2. Did you miss the bottom page? Do you want to think that way. To avoid a bear market is to be afraid of missing out. It doesn't matter if you miss it; if you go up too much, it will fall; don't chase the rise.
So how high can this wave of rebound rise, and when will it end? I'm neither Zhu Geliang nor Sima Yi. I can't see what cards are on the deck, and I can't exchange the cards for what I want. Just a guess. In terms of points, if it can stand at 4000, it will definitely go up to 4100, and maybe even reach 4200. However, I don't think I can break through 4200 this time. If it were to break through, I would accept the short run. It doesn't matter if I earn less. From 4,000 to 4200, it has already exceeded my expectations. Don't be afraid to go short; the most important thing is not to lose money![]()
As for when? Let's talk about a conspiracy theory. This Friday or next Monday, according to the deduction of the conspiracy theory, it will inevitably peak in stages by then![]()
. This is a conspiracy theory. There is no basis. As to why they say this, Wall Street took advantage of China's market closure and quickly pulled it up. Wait for the Chinese market to open, and then smash the market. Whoever falls in our A-shares will follow. Anyway, as soon as the National Day holiday ended last year, US stocks immediately crashed![]()
Of course, a wave of rebound began later; that was an afterthought.
In terms of operation, I'm currently stuck in my first three positions, unh can't move for the time being (unless it plummets, then I'll continue to add it), and Tesla. Seeing around 150, I think the situation has settled in profits in batches. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $UnitedHealth(UNH.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
There are others $Enphase Energy(ENPH.US$ und $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ , keep watching.
Semiconductors are a bit aggressive today. I basically cleared Soxs before to avoid running out of thin air. I own $ON Semiconductor(ON.US$ und $Intel(INTC.US$ However, the position is less than 1%, so I'm happy when it rises; it doesn't matter if I lose money. I continue to be bearish. I'm not shorting for a while. It's nothing more than taking a short time and not making any money; at least I won't lose money. supposing $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ After going above 200, I would consider shorting for an opportunity to buy SOXS. $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF(SOXS.US$
As for bonds, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 5.5 at most, which couldn't be higher. Therefore, there is very limited room for bonds to decline, but there is not much potential for growth. TLT's historical high was 170, but now it is only 105. If it can rise to 150 in the next 3 years, the annualization is basically 15%, and it will surely surpass most stocks.
If the Federal Reserve actually raised interest rates by more than 5.5![]()
Or as stated so far, if you add 5.25% (add 0.25 each time in 2/3/5) and keep using the current QT rate for at least 1 year (at least until 5/24), then bonds will fall, and TLT may fall to 80-90, but S&P may actually fall below 2,500, and it is even more unbearable for the NASDAQ. Because companies have long been accustomed to low interest rates and low inflation since 2008, borrowing costs have suddenly risen and remained so high for so long. Coupled with high labor costs, cash flow has inevitably broken down one after another.
Finally, let's talk about the Federal Reserve. Currently, few people believe that the Federal Reserve will add 0.25 three more times until May, and then maintain it for another year, while at the same time QT. Everyone thinks 2*0.25 is almost enough, and interest rates will be cut this year, and February next year at the latest. Who is right and who is wrong?![]()
It all depends on how the Federal Reserve intends to land. In my personal opinion, there are no soft landings, only hard landings and no landings. Let's not talk about a hard landing. Next time we will directly raise interest rates by 50 basis points, then say we will continue to increase in March and not drop in a year. The market will have a hard landing right away![]()
What does not land mean? Abandon the 2% inflation target. When it's about to fall, don't start cutting interest rates, stop QT, then release water. Or even let inflation go, or let the market regulate it. Is that possible? I think there is. Because the world landscape has changed, the 2% inflation target may never be reached. Can the Federal Reserve really do anything at any cost? Lao Bao seems to be quite stubborn; I'm afraid he doesn't have this courage.![]()
If it really doesn't land, then there won't be a second half of the bear market this time. However, no one knows what the future holds.
Inflation is a cancer of the economy. Once it worsens, it is troublesome if it continues to an advanced stage. If you take drugs that are too aggressive, you may inadvertently kill the patient directly. If not treated, you can actually enjoy it for a few years![]()
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