Below are the central bank's important agendas for this week
Monday (January 30): ECB Governing Council member Villeroy delivered a speech;
Tuesday (January 31): Eurozone banking loan survey report released;
Wednesday (Feb. 1): No important agenda;
Thursday (February 2): Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decisions and policy statements; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of England announces interest rate decisions, meeting minutes and monetary policy reports; Bank of England Governor Bailey holds a monetary policy press conference; the European Central Bank announces interest rate decisions and policy statements; and ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference;
Friday (Feb. 3): ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech.
Economic data
The Federal Reserve has previously made it clear that to stop the pace of interest rate hikes, it is necessary to see evidence that the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market has begun to improve. Based on this, the January non-farm payrolls report released on Friday will set the tone for the Fed's February interest rate meeting.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said the US job market will continue to cool down in January. The median estimate shows that the number of new non-farm payrolls in the US in January was 185,000, down from 223,000 in December last year. The unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% to 3.6%, but it is still close to the lowest level in 50 years. Furthermore, the average hourly wage increased 4.3% year on year, a slowdown from the previous value of 4.6%.
On Wednesday, the ADP employment report known as “small non-farmers” was released. Economists expect the index to fall back to 170,000 from 235,000 in December.
The European Central Bank is facing an embarrassing dilemma of progress and retreat. On the one hand, inflation is still running at a high level for decades; on the other hand, the economy has not completely overcome the energy crisis, and the pressure of recession is still there. As for the future path of interest rate hikes, investors will look for clues from major data such as GDP and CPI released this week.
Economists expect the Eurozone's GDP in the fourth quarter to be 1.7% year on year, falling for the third consecutive quarter. The month-on-month initial value was -0.1%, the first negative since the second quarter of 2021. The data will be released on Tuesday.
CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect that the Eurozone's adjusted CPI for January will fall from 9.2% in December to 9%, the third consecutive month of decline. The month-on-month initial value is 0.1%, up from the previous value of -0.1%; furthermore, the initial value of the January core harmonized CPI was 5.1%, the first decline since July last year, but it is only a slight decline from 5.2% in the previous month. Maintaining high core inflation indicators is likely to keep the ECB's tough policy going.
On Tuesday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the official manufacturing and comprehensive PMI data for January, on Wednesday it will announce China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for January, and on Friday it will release China's Caixin service sector PMI data for January.
The PMI index fell across the board in December due to the epidemic. Tianfeng Securities believes that considering that the Spring Festival was earlier this year, on January 22, the arrival of the “homecoming wave” may cause the restoration of employment, production, etc. in January to be slow. The formal restoration of the economy may have to wait until after the Spring Festival in February, when the impact of the epidemic weakens and is compounded by returning to work after the holiday season or will officially push the domestic economy into a recovery period.
The following are important economic data:
Monday (January 30): Germany's preliminary workday-adjusted GDP for the fourth quarter, year-on-year, and the US Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for January;
Tuesday (January 31): Profit ratio of industrial enterprises above the scale in China in December; China's official manufacturing PMI for January; preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter of the Eurozone; preliminary year-on-year GDP for the fourth quarter of the Eurozone; preliminary year-on-year value of Germany's harmonized CPI in January; year-on-year ratio of the housing price index of the 20 major US cities in November;
Wednesday (February 1): China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for January, Eurozone's final manufacturing PMI for January, UK manufacturing PMI for January, Eurozone's January harmonized CPI ratio, changes in US ADP employment in January, and US EIA crude oil inventories for the week up to January 27;
Thursday (February 2): The final month-on-month value of durable goods orders in the US in December, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of January 28 in the US;
Friday (February 3): China's Caixin Service Industry PMI for January, Eurozone January Service PMI Final Value, UK January Service PMI, Eurozone December PPI YoY, US Non-Farm Employment Population Change in January, US Unemployment Rate in January, US Average Hourly Wage Ratio in January, US Final Price of Markit Service Industry PMI for January, and US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January.
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