How to get the most profit by holding Tesla positions after the big rise?

Tesla’s sales of China-made cars in January were 66,000, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, compared with 59,800 in January last year. Considering that there were actually only three weeks of working days in January this year, the statistical caliber of the data was inaccurate. With some deviations, this score is okay. It seems that Tesla's price reduction still has a good effect on the delivery. It is expected that the sales volume in the next 2-3 months will continue to respond, leaving enough room for the market's imagination, which is why Tesla's stock price has risen sharply recently.

However, this round of price cuts has also significantly reduced Tesla’s profit per car. In the third quarter of 2022, Tesla’s net profit per car reached US$9,600 per volume. It is said that price cuts have a greater impact on the profit of bicycles. Judging from our estimated market value, according to the estimated delivery of Tesla in 2023 at 1.7 million (a year-on-year increase of 30%), the corresponding net profit of bicycles is 8,500 US dollars per vehicle. Based on the calculation of the market value of the 23-year net profit of 14.45 billion U.S. dollars, the neutral estimate gives a valuation of 30 times. Tesla’s more reasonable market value is 433.5 billion U.S. dollars, corresponding to a stock price of 137 U.S. dollars; the optimistic estimate gives a valuation of 50 times, The corresponding market value is 722.5 billion U.S. dollars, and the corresponding stock price is 229 U.S. dollars; the pessimistic estimate gives a valuation of 20 times, the corresponding market value is 289 billion U.S. dollars, and the corresponding stock price is 91.34 U.S. dollars.

Combined with the above stock price analysis, we give the corresponding option trading strategy: It is recommended that customers who intend to build a Tesla position can sell PUT with a price tag of 90-100 US dollars, even if they can’t buy stocks to earn some margin. After the sharp rise, the upside is limited and the valuation is too high. It is recommended that Tesla customers who hold the underlying shares can sell CALL with a price tag of 230-240 US dollars. (There is also a special reminder that one option corresponds to 100 underlying shares. It is recommended that option players sell calls on the basis of holding underlying shares, otherwise the risk is too high).