How can I get the most benefit from holding Tesla positions after the sharp rise?
Tesla sold 66,000 cars in China in January, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year, while sales in January last year were 59,800 units. Considering that January of this year actually only had a three-week working day, which led to some deviations in the statistics, this result is quite acceptable. It seems that Tesla's price reduction still has a good driving effect on delivery. It is expected that sales will continue to respond in the next 2-3 months, leaving the market with plenty of room for imagination. This is also the reason why Tesla's stock price has risen sharply recently.
However, this round of price cuts also drastically reduced Tesla's bicycle profit level. In the third quarter of '22, Tesla's net profit for bicycles reached 99,600 US dollars/volume, and the price reduction in this round was 40,000 to 60,000 yuan. In other words, the price reduction still had a big impact on bicycle profits. Judging from our estimated market value, according to Tesla's estimated delivery of 1.7 million units in 2023 (30% year-on-year increase), the corresponding net profit of bicycles was 0.85 million US dollars per vehicle, and Tesla's net profit of 23 was 14.45 billion US dollars per vehicle. The neutral estimate was below 30 times that of Tesla's net profit of 14.45 billion US dollars. Valuation, Tesla is more reasonable The market capitalization was 433.5 billion US dollars, corresponding to the stock price of 137 US dollars; under optimistic estimates, the corresponding market value was 72.5 billion US dollars, corresponding to the stock price of 229 US dollars; under pessimistic estimates, the corresponding market value was 289 billion US dollars, corresponding to the stock price of 91.34 billion US dollars.
Based on the stock price analysis above, a corresponding option trading strategy is proposed: it is recommended that customers interested in opening a Tesla position can sell a PUT with a price of 110-150 US dollars, even if they can't buy a stock margin. At the same time, it is estimated that after the subsequent Tesla surge, there is limited room for growth and the valuation is too high. It is recommended that Tesla customers holding the underlying stock can sell CALL with a price of 230-240 US dollars. (There is also a special reminder that an option corresponds to 100 underlying shares. It is recommended that option players sell calls on the basis of holding the underlying stock; otherwise, the risk is too great).
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