Facing the arrival of the Q4 financial report, how to operate Meituan options?

During Q4 of 22, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that Meituan's core local commercial business will be greatly impacted.

1) The takeaway business, as the company's drainage business, was greatly affected by the epidemic control in October and November 2022, and many merchants closed down. In December, affected by the peak of the epidemic, the transportation capacity was relatively tight. Therefore, the overall forecast of Meituan in Q4 The order volume of takeaway business increased by about 5%-10% year-on-year.

2) The in-store hotel and travel business has been significantly impacted by the epidemic control. From the perspective of macro data, the zero income of catering agencies in 2022Q4 was 1,269.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.27%. Considering the epidemic prevention and control policy, other in-store consumption items such as cultural, sports and entertainment projects The impact is greater than that of catering, so it is expected that the total transaction value of Meituan's overall in-store business will drop by 15%-20%.

3) In terms of new business, the data shows a trend of narrowing losses. It is expected that the company will reduce the company’s new business losses to a certain extent by reducing costs and increasing efficiency, but the absolute value of losses may still be large, dragging down the company’s performance.

1) If the Q4 financial report exceeds market expectations, the profit margin of the takeaway and in-store business is still increasing and is not significantly affected by the epidemic lockdown, and the loss of new business is greatly reduced, and the company's quarterly profit can be the same as that of Q3 or even increase. The stock price will rise rapidly, and then enter the consolidation stage.

Therefore, customers who intend to reduce their holdings can choose to sell call (the price is around HK$210) and close their positions before the release of the Q4 financial report; customers who want to continue holding or even intend to increase their positions can choose to sell put (the price is around HK$130). about).

2) If the Q4 financial report is basically in line with market expectations, the takeaway and in-store businesses are affected to a certain extent by the epidemic, the new business still suffers losses, and the company's overall profit returns to the breakeven level, it is expected that the company's stock price will rise slightly due to the negative impact .

Therefore, customers who intend to reduce their holdings can choose to set the selling price at around HK$200; customers who want to continue holding or even intend to increase their positions can set the selling price at HK$120.

3) If the latest financial report shows that the company has suffered a large loss, and the overall single-quarter loss exceeds 1 billion yuan, the company's stock price will fall to a certain extent. What happens in the later period will have to wait for Meituan's 2023 Q1 quarterly financial report to give the market a new direction. However, as the 2023Q1 financial report is expected to be good, the expected decline is limited.

In addition, because Meituan's Q1 quarter is expected to be good, the stock price is more likely to rise. After Meituan's stock price is relatively high, it is recommended that customers implement the strategy of "holding underlying stocks and selling high-priced calls". Sell call options at HK$220.