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When to start shorting US stocks

The risk of shorting US stock ETFs is minimal until several important signs of the end of the bear market appear. Sometimes the buying time is inappropriate, and it will hold on for a while, but there is a possibility that the profit will stop in the end. However, once the indicator for the end of the bear market appears, and the direction of operation has not changed, it may become deeper and deeper, and eventually the blood costs will be lost.
1. The FED announced the start of interest rate cuts or the restart of QE. As soon as this news comes out, it is necessary to sell all short positions immediately.
2. The FED announced that it would stop raising interest rates or stop QT. After this news came out, we needed to change our strategy. We mainly went long, complemented by shorting, and shorting carefully.
3. S&P fell below the 250-week line, which is likely to happen in the first half of 2023. This means that the stock price is back to the level it was 7 years ago. S&P fell below the 250-week line, indicating that the bear market was about halfway through. The bear market may continue for some time, and it is likely that it will continue to reach new lows, but the risk of shorting is getting higher and higher as time goes on. We need to change our strategy to focus on bottoming out, selling at high prices, try not to go short after selling, wait for S&P to fall again, then bottom again.
4. An impactful black swan or gray rhino incident occurred, and as a result, US stocks continued to fall sharply and continue to reach new lows. In order to reduce the risk of the entire financial system, the FED will soon introduce easing measures, bringing a sharp rebound to US stocks. After fluctuating up and down, it eventually turned into a reversal of the market. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$
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