Dissecting Powell’s speech
- Disinflationary process started (dovish)
- Expect 2023 to be year of significant decline in inflation (dovish)
- Encouraging that disinflation has not caused harm to job market (dovish)
- Jobs report stronger than he expected (hawkish)
- Need further rate hikes (hawkish)
- Take couple of years for Fed’s balance sheet decline to come to an end (hawkish)
- Expect 2023 to be year of significant decline in inflation (dovish)
- Encouraging that disinflation has not caused harm to job market (dovish)
- Jobs report stronger than he expected (hawkish)
- Need further rate hikes (hawkish)
- Take couple of years for Fed’s balance sheet decline to come to an end (hawkish)
There are more to the above. Go ahead to find the transcript.
Anyway, he was hawkish at the start of the speech, but along the way, the speech became more dovish.
No surprise for the market at the moment. It’s all about disinflationary and soft landing now
No surprise for the market at the moment. It’s all about disinflationary and soft landing now
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456632345 : Powell's logic is that employment is strong because the economy is strong, and more interest rates can be raised because the economy is strong. Although a signal to raise interest rates was sent, after all, interest rate hikes have only just slowed down, so the market chose to ignore it for the time being.
InvestUncle : ya so rosy picture full steam ahead bullish market, justifying why some tickers are having 90 PE multiple!!!
Cow Moo-neyOP InvestUncle: One slight push and we could fall off the cliff
Fordx5083 Cow Moo-neyOP: I'm going wait, grab some popcorn & puts for the ride down. It'll be interesting seeing how it falls. Seems like the market is getting very good at sideways channels and then volatile ups and downs and then back to sideways. If you've ever boated in the gulf It's like go back and forth between the bays and the chaotic swells of the ocean! best of luck. Always love your insight & appreciate it.
Milk The Cow InvestUncle: I guess chip makers are among those with 90+ PE
(Didn't realised it until u mentioned).
Chip makers companies are the most over hyped stock recently, in my opinion...
Cow Moo-neyOP Fordx5083: Thanks for the appreciation
Anyway, just sharing some quick thoughts - personally I wouldn’t want to be too fixated that a big fall or decline will happen.
Yes, retracements/pullbacks are likely to happen but we need to accept that most charts are looking bullish now. Therefore, I wouldn’t want to think that the next retracement will be a big fall or decline, until the charts show me otherwise.
Stay nimble, and best of luck to you as well!
456632345 Milk The Cow: Yes, look at NVDA, doubling in three months
Milk The Cow 456632345: Just imagine that if I all in that time at 110 usd+ & hold like an idiot
till now & sell it now, I'll be rich 2x in 3mths 
.
.
Welp, guess no one can time the market correctly