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高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Feb 11, 2023 21:57

Has the bear market rebound ended?

After Tesla formed a shooting star pattern that looked very much like a significant peak and then fell in line with the trend, the violent rebound came to an end. It is said to be a shooting star, but when magnified, it actually appears to be a bearish spinning top. However, regardless of the type of star, it is a signal of a top.
A mooer commented that everyone understands this. Yes, if you don't understand shooting stars, you don't need to speculate in the stock market. However, what I want to say is, weren't there obvious patterns before every loss? Of course there were, the signals were there, but people often choose to ignore them.
Whether it's fundamentals, technicals, or the macro environment, it's time to sell Tesla when it exceeds 200. Not buying at 100 and only buying at 200, that's definitely being taken advantage of as an inexperienced investor. I have a fully equipped iPhone 14 Pro Max, originally priced at $1400, now it's only $2000. Do you want to buy it?
What is the current situation of the stock market? Is it about to reverse?
Personally, I believe not yet. It's likely to be a correction. It may continue to rebound around 4000 points, but it's difficult to break through 4200. The reasons are as follows:
1. Currently, the market is turning a blind eye to poor financial reports, even interpreting them as bearish news. So even with poor fundamentals, stock prices can still rise, and there is a severe fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment. The only reason that can cause a sharp drop in the US stock market at present is if the Federal Reserve becomes hawkish again.
2. If we want Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to become hawkish, the employment data must not be good. We can only rely on inflation data.
3. What is the current situation with US inflation? Inflation has already stopped falling and there are signs of a rebound. Service inflation remains high, and housing and used car prices have already rebounded from their lows. I have a friend who moved to another state in September last year and urgently wanted to sell his house. He listed it for $0.5 million and kept it on the market for three months. The agent held three open houses, but there were no offers. The agent didn't allow him to lower the price, and he was desperate. He told me that as long as someone was willing to pay, he would sell it even cheaper, as long as the buyer didn't back out. Surprisingly, at the beginning of this year, he sold it at the original price.
McDonald's $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ The stock price has been rising for so many years $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ Warren Buffett's investment in McDonald's and the high profits he made cannot be separated from the exploitative low wages at McDonald's. Without the hell of the poor, where would the heaven of the rich be?In my area, the hourly wage for McDonald's employees used to be around $10, but now it has already risen to $15, yet they still can't recruit anyone. Are the proletariat united and on strike?
4. But why does it say that the stock price will not plummet? Because the visible inflation around us takes time to be reflected in the statistics. It is highly probable that this CPI data will not show the expected smooth decline, and it may even show a small decrease or even remain stable compared to the previous period. However, even if it remains stable compared to the previous period, it can still be interpreted as "one set of data cannot explain everything".
5. However, fire cannot be wrapped up in paper. When the CPI data for March or April is announced and shows a month-on-month increase, I don't think Mr. Powell can sit still anymore.
What is currently most feared is that if Mr. Powell is scheduled to raise rates by 25 basis points in March but decides to pause the rate hike due to a significant increase in the month-on-month CPI data in April, he will have no choice but to shout loudly, "Gosh darn it, let's raise rates by 50!"
Currently recommended investment strategy: be cautious in betting on rebounds, do not chase high-tech stocks, and pick up undervalued quality stocks.
$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ I sold off more than half before the financial report came out, and although I didn't lose on the portion I sold, the profit was too small. After the financial report came out, the stock soared. At that time, I thought I had sold off more than half, so I hesitated and didn't sell immediately. When I came back after a busy morning at work, the other half was already trapped.
$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ I also sold off half, and I indeed made a profit. I am safe now.
$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ McDonald's is currently the largest position I hold, and it is highly likely that I caught the bottom and am waiting for the rebound.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ I have reduced my positions earlier and now I am gradually buying them back. Even if there is a violent rate hike beyond expectations in the future, the stock market will suffer much more than bonds.
Personally, I think that raising the interest rate to 5.25-5.5 and keeping this rate unchanged for at least 2-3 years will bring down inflation. There is no need to raise it above 6%, that would be excessive.
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高贵的阿德莱德
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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