Has the stock god retired? Will someone take over?
I believe everyone has heard that Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, has sold its previous holdings. $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ Although they made a lot of profits, the selling price was not at a high level. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The stock god has always advocated heavy buying and long-term holding. There are basically three possibilities for this time of selling. Which one do you think it is? Let's take a vote first:
My personal opinion: The stock god would not change his own image just to exploit others.![]()
If it was done by his temporary workers without his knowledge, that's not possible either. I haven't heard anything about him being itchy. So I think either the stock god made a mistake or Taiwan Semiconductor is currently not doing well.
I have always believed that the current popular semiconductor stocks are significantly overvalued, especially $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ As well as $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ . Among them, nvda is the most seriously overvalued. Will it drop due to overvaluation? Not necessarily, as long as no one thinks of themselves as a bargain hunter, the game of passing the buck can continue.
If we say nvda is like the game of passing the buck, even if you accidentally become a bargain hunter, at least you have a bouquet of flowers. ![]()
Then many junk stocks are like the game of passing on 💩, if you accidentally become a bargain hunter, you can only keep it for yourself. So I won't touch these junk stuff. I used to hold $Carvana (CVNA.US)$ , one-thousandth of the position, has long been sold out.
I'm planning to buy a car recently, but there are two types of cars that I really dare not buy. One is $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ or $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ and so on. Another is $Carvana (CVNA.US)$ sell any car. I'm afraid that if the company goes bankrupt after a few years, who will I go to for warranty when it breaks down?![]()
If the Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate above 5% for three to five years, who knows if these losing businesses can survive?![]()
There's a strange phenomenon recently, the bond market has already bowed to the Federal Reserve. The current interest rates tell us: Big Brother Powell, you are right, raise it a couple more times this year, no rate cut before the end of the year.![]()
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For me, $100 tlt is like a $100 Tesla. I just increased my holdings by 5% today. If it drops below 100, I'll buy more. If things get worse, I'll switch tlt to tmf, and take the risk.![]()
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Of course, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ can earn a lot, but it can also plummet from $400 to $100, a 75% drop. The high point of tlt is 170, if it dares to drop 75%, to about $45, I think before that, Old Powell will have to resign in disgrace.
Compared to the stock market, more people invest in bonds and fewer speculate. If you make a mistake, it's your own misjudgment, there's no deliberate cutting of leeks by others.
Speaking of the stock market, why ignore Old Bao? When the inflation data came out, it continued to rise. What I said before, "it's just a piece of data and doesn't represent anything," actually came true. But it seems like the market has come to its senses today. I wonder if it realizes that it should fall?
Why is the stock market rising so much? Today I heard someone say it's because China is easing monetary policy! The US wants to land, and the pandas are easing. The previous conspiracy theories seem to have been right again. Why are conspiracy theories always so accurate?![]()
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Currently, my top positions are:
Shorting the Japanese Yen $ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS.US)$
Selling qqq $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
Continuously bottoming out $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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回本 : There is no way to buy stocks for political purposes only
Hauruchen : If you follow the previous practice of stock gods, you probably think the company is not worth this price
adamwky83 : He sold due to political stability in tw
Samur : The US will also raise interest rates, so why are they optimistic about TLT? One thing I don't understand is that interest rate hikes will cause TLT to fall. So how exactly is TLT safe haven as a financial safe-haven tool?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Samur : The predictability of TLT is relatively strong, and there isn't much room for downside. The current price has basically calculated that the peak of the interest rate hike is up to 5.5%, and interest rates will only be cut next year. Unless interest rates are raised above 6%, I don't see a sharp decline. If interest rates are raised to 6% or more and maintained for a year, a large number of loss-making companies will lose their capital and go bankrupt; the stock market will only be worse. TLT is not a safe-haven tool; it's just less risky than the stock market
Up 10 Down 20 : I'm on load duration today, but I feel like we're all here early and the story of Higher for Longer can still be told for a while. The February data should be pretty good; the hard landing story will probably wait until March. It's OK to do TLT options to reduce costs