TSLA
Tesla
-- 431.660 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 17.0800 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 137.010 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.080 LAES
SEALSQ Corp
-- 9.080 
Best opening since 1975: Is the worst over?
The Nasdaq had its best January performance since 2001 with a 10.7% gain. That's after plunging 33.1% in 2022. In fact, the Nasdaq was up more than 16% year to date as of Feb. 2, 2023. That's the best start to the year since 1975. So will this year be good for the Nasdaq?
I don't think so. I think the market is too optimistic. This is just a relief rally after tech stocks' rout last year. They have been rallying because the market is pricing in the Fed hiking rates for the last time by 25 basis points, pausing and then cutting rates in the second half of the year.
Recent reports have came in with higher than expected data. The January jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprisingly strong 517,000. The US labour market is not softening and the Fed may have to continue to hike agressively to tame wage inflation. January CPI rose by 6.4% on an annual basis and 0.5% on a monthly basis. January retail sales rose 3%, the largest one-month jump since Mar 2021. US PPI rebounded 0.7% in January, the largest increase since Jun 2022. These stoke worries that robust consumption combined with a higher-than-expected readings on consumer and producer prices may keep the Fed on a hawkish stance for longer.
The reality is that an earnings recession has now begun and that inflation may still pick up later this year. The strong rebound has come despite mixed Q4 earnings and outlooks, in addition to about 100,00 layoffs announced in Jan 2023. Analysts are expecting a recession later this year. But the market has only factored in about a 2% drop in corporate EPS. Corporate EPS drops about 20% in a typical recession. So stocks have room to fall.
China's reopening from its zero-Covid will result in greater demand for commodities and hence higher inflation. But China's increased demand for goods and services from the U.S. and EU may also result in a sllghtly shallower recession in these regions. So the Fed may have to hike rates higher for longer. There may not be any rate cuts this year. The markets may crash this year.
After closing a bad year in 2022, the Nasdaq rallied 10.7% in January. The Nasdaq usually ended the year positive if it rallied in January. Since the Nasdaq's inception in 1971, there have been 33 prior months where it rallied at least 10%. But the number of occurrences drops to just 16 when narrowed to rallies of that magnitude following a 12-month stretch in which the index was down, according to Bespoke Investment Group. In such cases, the Nasdaq's performance then tends to be positive over the next year, except in 2001, when there were 4 different (monthly gains of 10% or more) and the Nasdaq was lower one year later after all 4 of them.
This is shown in the chart below. The Nasdaq jumped 12.2% in January 2001, after plunging 39.3% over the prior 12 months. The index tumbled 30.2% over the next year.
There were multiple 10%-plus monthly gains in 2001 and they were all followed by eventual declines. The rally in January this year and the rout last year draw comparisons to the bursting of the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002. It could be 2001 all over again.
AI stocks may lead the rallies to very high valuations and the bubble may burst like the meme and dot-com bubbles. Tech and other stocks may follow them down and crash.
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bullrider_21
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Giovanni Ayala :
bullrider_21 OP Giovanni Ayala :
bullrider_21 OP : @BAO BMW@High Profit Low Loss@LEng LEng@SimplyDestiny@soyabean89@无敌哈哈哈队@6幸福快乐@102261387@102937328@48961688
BAO BMW bullrider_21 OP : hi bullrider,
the meaning.. currently all my holding very bad, see red all the way..
thk u for the info .
after reading I still not so understanding
i always make the wrong choice and buy the wrong share ..no luck ...
bullrider_21 OP BAO BMW : Stocks may fall lower this year. I think IMPP can cut when it reaches the downtrend line. Don't need to wait for 0.40. It's going lower and lower.
BAO BMW bullrider_21 OP : yes Bull,
my IMPP I did avg down until now 0.375..
I think if reach 0.40, I will sell everything...
if I still go more fund , I will avg down again ..
BAO BMW BAO BMW : I think make the wrong understanding.
IMPP , I unable to cut lost , if I cut lose almost lost 70% all my fund , so die die also must hold until the end..no choices..put too much in...I thought this company can make money but the management was bad nuts ... killing the the ppl that trust them ...
bullrider_21 OP BAO BMW :
The way it's falling, I think next time the highest it can rise is maybe only 0.28. Maybe cut loss and buy a better stock?
BAO BMW bullrider_21 OP : I did try to buy some stock recently but all die :
luck
WISA from $14 avg down to 9.80
APRN - $1.20
BRSH- 0.37
GMBL - from $11 avg down to 5.50
ILAG - 1.62
JCSE - 1.25
IMPP - from 0.58 avg down 0.375
U see ,all my holding see so Red ..I already lost to much on my saving , so unable to do something, now only holding it's rebound back ...hope it's will..wish me good
bullrider_21 OP BAO BMW :
Good luck.
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