Expert Meeting Minutes | Telecom Operators Meeting Minutes

1. The business model of computing power realization is similar to water and electricity. Operators collect money for computing power connections and edge clouds at the same time. The computing power network is a light asset for operators because the peak period of 5G construction ended last year, and the computing power network accounts for about 20% of the entire capital expenditure.

2. With the development of ChatGPT, there will be 10 times the demand for computing power in the next few years, and operators will be the largest suppliers of computing power in China.

3. Optical modules, IDCs, and switches will benefit. Among them, Zhongji InnoLight and Tianfu Communication are the suppliers of large North American companies. If the industry breaks out, they will benefit from the demand-pull of China and the United States at the same time.

1. Computing power

The demand for computing power consists of two parts: training and reasoning. Assuming that a model is trained from 0, 800 Nvidia A100 cards are required to run for 240 days. The monthly rent for an A100 server is 50,000, and the rent for training this model is 30 million. The link that consumes the most computing power is operation. An Nvidia A100 server can currently handle 20-30 characters per second at an efficient rate. Assuming that there are 100 million daily visits and 10 conversations per person, assuming that the number of replies is 150 words, it will take 1.66 million hours to process it with only one server, so at least 69,400 servers are needed to handle this visit volume, and the rent needs to be 40 billion per year. Force supports 1.35 billion units. The latest data shows that the global supercomputing computing power scale in 21 years was 1.4 billion units. According to the data in 21 years, it can only support 100 million visits per day worldwide, while the domestic supercomputing calculation example is only 300 million units.

2. Current income and business status of the three major operators

The current mobile and telecom cloud computing revenue is 100 billion, and IDC's revenue is 40 to 50 billion. Therefore, enterprises purchase more from operators' clouds than from Internet companies. The three major operators have all proposed computing power network strategies. Operators' computing base is becoming more and more trustworthy. Taking China Mobile as an example, it is defined as the vanguard of information infrastructure and information services. Telecom is defined as the chain length of the cloud computing industry chain. Tianyi Cloud has become a benchmark in the cloud computing industry. After the mixed reform, China Unicom established a joint venture CDN and big data company and cooperated in ecological aspects. It is defined as the chain length of network security. The current government affairs cloud is mainly provided by China Unicom.

3. Carriers’ Future Computational Space

With the development of ChatGPT, there will be 10 times the demand for computing power in the next few years, and operators will be the largest suppliers of computing power in China. China Mobile proposes to account for 7% of China's computing power by 2025. Operators have large-scale data and cash flow to ensure the realization of this goal. At present, the number of centralized procurement of operator servers has surpassed that of Internet companies, which also provides a facility foundation for subsequent computing power.

1. The business model and return expectation of computing power realization.

Similar to water and electricity. Operators collect money for computing power connections and edge clouds at the same time. Next, operators' spending on computing power networks will increase significantly, while spending on 5G networks will begin to decline. The charging model is similar to the SaaS model, in how much computing power is charged.

2. Whether the investment in computing power will affect the dividend policy.

Don't worry, mobile and telecom have reached a 70% dividend level and their cash flow is extremely good. The computing power network is a light asset for operators, because the peak period of 5G construction ended last year, and the computing power network accounts for about 20% of the entire capital expenditure. Among them, Unicom's dividend rate is more than 40%, which is not as high as that of China Mobile and China Telecom, because the company believes that the return on investment in the computing power network will be higher.

3. The advantages and disadvantages of the three operators, and which one is better in a comprehensive comparison.

Overall bullish. The three major operators will be revalued. China Mobile has advantages in the scale of mobile users, high cash flow, dividend rate, and ROE. The chain length of China Telecom's cloud computing industry chain, the highest proportion of cloud computing, and the highest proportion of computing power network. China Unicom has the highest proportion on the industrial Internet, including the industrial Internet. By 2025, China Unicom will account for 50% of the industrial Internet, and China Unicom's profit growth rate is the fastest.

4. The assessment of one profit and five rates is mainly in the group company or a listed company. Where is the improvement of ROE mainly?

According to the assessment of ROE, the investment has begun to decline, and the per capita benefit is getting better and better. The infrastructure built in the past ten years will enter the payback period in the future. One interest and five interest rates will have a better assessment of the operator's cash flow.

5. Investment opportunities for optical modules under the background of increasing computing power.

Optical modules, IDCs, and switches will benefit. Among them, the relationship between optical modules and computing power is linear. Among them, Zhongji InnoLight and Tianfu Communications are suppliers to large North American companies. If the industry breaks out, they will benefit from the demand in China and the United States at the same time. Follow-up needs to track the status of the company's orders.