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Minutes of Expert Meeting | Minutes of EVE Energy Co., Ltd

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Senorita Earnings wrote a column · Feb 23, 2023 03:22
Core points:
1. The company's production capacity will expand in 23 years, and the market share will increase. The target is to sell 500,000 batteries this year, and the annual domestic battery demand is 10 million.
2. The price of energy storage is determined, and major customers adopt price linkage. Recently, a long-term pricing model (1-year price lock) is being discussed; for non-lithium parts, other main materials are linkage, copper foil, and electrolyte are involved. The range of linked raw materials is very large, and the pricing cycle is calculated quarterly.
3. There are three pricing models, and the profits of the three are similar, there are gaps in the stages, and the results for the whole year are similar.
Full text:
1. Battery pricing and locked-in price situation of downstream customers?
Lithium carbonate self-supply rate? Lithium carbonate is expected to output 10,000 tons, and the construction cycle of large projects is a little bit late, delayed by a few months. If the sales volume is 100GWh this year, 40~50% will be self-supplied; Several forms: linkage between price and main material; determining a price, and rebate according to the price of lithium carbonate at the end of the year; locking the price for one year (the profit at the beginning of the year is under pressure/the price of lithium carbonate will decrease in the second half of the year, and the company's profit will recover);
2. Profit expectations for power batteries?
Downstream customers are not profitable, and as a major supplier, they transfer profits to downstream customers and do not pursue higher profit margins; The company's production capacity will expand in 23 years, and the market share will increase. The goal is to sell 500,000 batteries this year, and the annual domestic demand for batteries is 10 million; Last year, most of the power storage capacity was climbing, and the profit margin was affected by the yield rate and utilization rate during the climbing process. In 23 years, these new capacities began to be fully produced. Theoretically, the net profit in 23 years will be better than in 22 years;
3. Three pricing models, which customers will be determined according to this, the approximate proportion, and whether the profitability is different?
Pricing rebates, 22 years of cooperation with heavy truck customers for one year, both parties are satisfied; In the model of locking prices throughout the year, customers hope that Q1Q2 performance will be better, which accounts for a relatively small proportion; The three kinds of profits are similar, there are gaps in the stages, and the results of the whole year are similar.
4. Profitability of power storage?
The price of raw materials will go down, which is good for battery profits, and it will take 2 to 3 months for price linkage transmission;
5. The layout of lithium carbonate?
Judging the price of lithium carbonate, it was originally expected to be 50,000 yuan, so lithium carbonate was mainly deployed in low-cost areas. Now it seems that the long-term price of lithium carbonate is higher than 50,000 yuan; Salt Lake, Hunan, Sichuan (output in the second half of the year), and follow-up new project plans will be released. The fluctuation of lithium carbonate price has little impact on us, and we must find our own opportunities for ups and downs; The price drop is conducive to the increase of energy storage batteries, and it is hoped that the price of lithium carbonate will drop;
6. Domestic power battery is expected to increase by 30%~40%;
7. When will the bargaining mode be implemented?
Negotiations have been completed on January 23, and when raw materials change drastically, we may readjust with customers; The main customer has already finished the negotiation after (the 200,000 yuan lock-up event of the friend merchant), so it will not be affected;
8. Equity incentives, 23 years of revenue of 70 billion yuan split?
Consumer batteries, 14-15 billion yuan energy storage is close to 30 billion yuan; The power is slightly higher than the energy storage;
9. What is the negotiation mode of energy storage?
The price of energy storage is determined, and major customers adopt a price linkage method. Recently, a long-term pricing model (1-year price lock) is being discussed; For the non-lithium part, other main materials are linked, copper foil and electrolyte are involved, the range of linked raw materials is large, and the pricing cycle is quarterly accounting.
10. Is the behavior of friends and merchants locking shares the mainstream way in the future?
OEMs have relatively few long-term price judgments for lithium carbonate, so OEMs are afraid to participate in this pricing method, and OEMs do not like this model at present; For the power customers of Yiwei Lithium Energy, the company’s share of customers exceeds 50%, which does not conform to the pricing model of competitors. Therefore, the company’s customers are stable and will not be affected by the strategies of competitors;
11. What is the future planning and pace of increasing lithium resources?
No clear data, or follow-up communication.
12. What is the price judgment for lithium carbonate next year?
The growth rate of trams in 23 years is lower than the growth rate of lithium carbonate production capacity. Lithium carbonate will slowly return in 23 years and will continue to return next year; The cost of spodumene is more than 30,000 yuan, and the cost of salt lake is more than 20,000 yuan. The cost of extracting lithium from clay is higher, 15~25 next year (maybe 20 or so is more appropriate);
13. The price of energy storage cells will drop?
The linkage down-regulation leads to.
14. What is the layout of other midstream materials this year?
Most of them start production or trial production in April and May, and Q3 will make a significant contribution; The 110,000 tons of German Yiwei has been fully put into production; Enjie Jingmen started trial production in March, and the time was slightly delayed due to other factors. Expected to start in April; Kodali Jingmen started production in April; Huayou 120,000 tons, Q2 in May, the whole line will be completed;
15. What is the profit of the material joint venture factory?
It will not be sold to the company in a form that is significantly lower than the market price; It is hoped that this part of the profit will be reflected in the battery, and at worst it will be reflected in investment income;
16. The proportion of energy storage in 23 years is relatively high. Who are the downstream customers sensitive to lithium carbonate?
The price of lithium carbonate has a seesaw relationship with the demand for energy storage batteries. When the price of lithium carbonate rises and the demand for energy storage falls, the risk of locking up the long-term price is higher. Therefore, no one locks the price, and the driving force is more linkage and year-end rebates;
17. After the material joint venture production capacity is put into production, will the downstream pricing method change?
A small percentage discount, in line with market principles; Will not adjust downstream pricing methods, use this resource prudently;
18. New technology development?
The cost of LMFP is more expensive than LFP, and the demand for LMFP is not strong now, the low temperature of LFP is not good, and the price of lithium carbonate will go down. The demand for LMFP will come up, and we have made technical preparations; There is still a lot of uncertainty about sodium batteries, and the company is ready for research and development.
19. Cost plus with overseas pricing model?
Overseas OEMs are mainly price-linked, with price adjustments every three months;
20. Three ways to introduce again?
Price linkage is the most mature solution, and the annual lock-in price and the operating status of OEMs have expectations (downstream customers have their own considerations);
21. The progress of the large cylinder and the progress of 560?
The advantages of large cylinders in economy and safety have achieved standardization. The fast charging technology can be fully charged in 12 minutes. The ultimate direction of future power batteries in cars is being applied by Volkswagen, Daimler, GM, and Tesla. Q2 starts delivery and verification of large-scale deliveryThe correlation between energy storage and the price is relatively high. The cost of the 560k system and battery cells will be effectively reduced. I like large-scale energy storage. The construction of the factory will start this year, the customer will verify it in the second half of the year, and the delivery will start next year; Large cylinders and large iron lithium will make the product gross profit rate equal to that of the industry, and they are no longer industry followers;
22. After Q1, the rhythm will change quarter by quarter?
The production capacity is continuously released, and the sales increase every month, as the quarter-to-quarter growth. 23Q1 Affected by the Spring Festival, 23Q1 saw a slight increase from the previous quarter and at least doubled the year-on-year growth.
23. Will Jinhai Lithium be consolidated this year?
The company holds 80% of the shares, and it has been consolidated since its establishment.24. Overseas customer development? What potential customers are there? Future sales targets already reflect overseas battery shipments.
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