TSLA
Tesla
-- 431.660 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 17.0800 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 137.010 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.080 LAES
SEALSQ Corp
-- 9.080 
Establishing a position.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Since criticizing Google for not laying off employees last year, I have completely sold off. After the press conference turned into a disaster, I think Google will feel ashamed and bravely, so I set a reminder at the opening gap to buy when it falls here. The first entry point is around 90, with a position of 1%. The second position is around 85, adding 2%, the third position is around 75, adding 3%, and the fourth position is around 60, adding 4%, totaling a planned position of 10%.
Today, as the first stop is reached before the market opens, I bought 1%. Right at the opening, the previous gap has been filled, so it should return to 83-85 later, with a high possibility of hitting a new low. However, this does not stop me from entering now, after all, it's only 1% of my position, I am not afraid of further decline.
What is the biggest advantage of individual investors compared to institutions? It is the ability to bear risks. As an individual investor, I have a full-time job and stable income, as well as real estate, bank deposits, short-term US Treasury bonds, and other investments. I am not afraid of losing money. I played aggressively last year and made a lot of money shorting semiconductors, but later I basically gave it all back. So this year I am very cautious about shorting. My investments this year are relatively conservative, mainly because I want to use some of the money originally planned for real estate investment to invest in the stock market. I need to be very careful with this money, as I can't afford to lose it. The money I previously invested in the stock market was all profits from other investments, it was all running profits, even if I blew up and cleared out, it wouldn't have a big impact on my life.
Real estate investment has stable cash flow and low risk, which I prefer. However, I am not very optimistic about the real estate market in the United States, so this year I will probably only buy one investment property.
I am more bullish on bonds this year. Although they have dropped nearly 10% in the past few days, I believe they have basically hit bottom. TLT may drop another 10% at most. If it really falls below $90, the dividend yield will be very attractive, and it will definitely rise again in the future. As long as I hold onto it, I won't lose money. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ In addition, I believe that assuming TLT is currently $100 and the S&P is at 4000 points, taking my own 30% position in TLT, I bet that TLT will outperform SPY in the next 12-24 months.
Furthermore, I believe that TLT, with 30% of my own position, will outperform SPY in the next 12-24 months.
If the investment returns are as follows: 4% for the savings account, 5% for government bonds, and 6% annualized return for the S&P, how many people would still take the risk to speculate in stocks? This is probably what the Morgan Stanley analyst warned about as the stock market death zone.
As for whether the S&P can reach 3000 points, it's possible in the future, depending on whether the Federal Reserve wants to control inflation or not. As long as the market doesn't fall to 3000, inflation won't return to 2%. However, the Federal Reserve can abandon the 2% inflation target.![]()
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In the short term, I see a range of 3900-4100 with volatility, so it's a good time to sell high and buy low. Anyway, as long as the positions are in TLT and YCS, let's just play with stocks. $ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS.US)$
Anyway, recently I dare not touch semiconductors, just wait and see. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Let's talk about it when it returns to around 150.![]()
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勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : I'd like to ask you which companies own the portion that receives interest?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : Are you asking me about dividend stocks I invest in? I will give priority to those that can both make money and grow, and are not afraid of a recession, such as health care, utilities, insurance, necessities of life, including UNH, PG, MCD, etc. There are also banks, such as Soma and Soma. They will also choose some highly defensive technology companies, such as IBM, MSFT, etc. Leading companies in the energy resource category can also be considered, but they are relatively cyclical and require long-term fixed investment to have relatively good returns
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 高贵的阿德莱德 OP :
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 高贵的阿德莱德 OP :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Thanks for the answers.
sTone83 : There's no problem with Google opening an observation warehouse now, but if you look back at TLT in the future, there may be some problems
高贵的阿德莱德 OP sTone83 : The market is so chaotic now, I just think that TLT is less risky than Spy; I can only take a look at it one step at a time.