Expert Meeting Minutes | TOPCon battery expert exchange meeting

1. TOPCon battery supply situation: The current supply is very tight. The leading takeaway company Jietai has a monthly production capacity of about 600MW, and other companies have a small takeaway production capacity in March. The battery supply of TOPCon is expected to remain tight for 2023.

2. TOPCon battery premium: TOPCon battery companies currently have strong bargaining power, and component companies passively accept it. In March, the compensation for TOPCon batteries ranged from 8 cents to 1 cent; in mid-February, it was around 3-5 cents.

3. The situation of new players: Leading companies have signed supply frameworks with some new players, but the specific amount of supply in the future depends on the product verification of new players. The general product verification cycle is 3-6 months.

A: TOPCon batteries are in a tight supply after the festival. The leading mass-produced takeaway company in the industry is Jietai, which has nearly 600MW a month and 70-80 million pieces. However, such a large amount of outsourcing is needed for a leading enterprise, so the supply in March is very tight.

A: Before the festival, the industry once had the same price as PN to promote the low price of N-type. In mid-February, the cost of silicon wafers rose, and the price difference of N-type reached 0.030 per watt (a premium of 3%). 10% premium).

A: The current bargaining power is on the battery side, and the module side is passively accepted. Because the price of components was low in early February, the rise in battery premiums is beginning to spread to the component side to get the price increase.

A: First, according to the future market supply and demand, generally, a 3-year long-term agreement is signed with the battery factory, but there is a supplementary agreement with a specific amount every year. More clarity will be allocated to each month. The price of essential volume cooperation is not fixed, and the locked volume does not close the price.

Q: What are the customer's acceptance and demand for TOPCon components?

A: The end customers are distributed enterprises, and the promotion status of component enterprises mainly determines the demand at home and abroad. At present, the promotion leader in the industry is Jinko. New projects accept more N types. The N-type single square has a 20W boost for component customers, which is also a good solution.

A: Yes. Especially in the market where silicon materials are reluctant to sell in January, the starting volume in March will be huge, about 30-40%.

A: It has been accepted but is in a transitional stage; it is not mandatory, but the N-type has been taken as a preferred option.

A: Europe and the United States have a high acceptance rate, and some regions, such as Southeast Asia and Africa, are still using 166 or even 158 components, so the acceptance rate is relatively low.

A: The volume will start in June this year. Many cross-border companies are still entering, but new players need technology accumulation, so we do not hold a generally optimistic attitude in the industry. After the quantity increases, the quality varies, and a genuinely stable supplier is still needed. Long orders may be just a formality. N-type batteries will be at a perfect premium until the end of this year.

A: The main partners are Jietai, Jolywood and Tongwei. Everyone is still in a state of caution. New players will also sign long-term agreements for long-term cooperation, but the follow-up needs to observe power stability. Later, the competition was still technical, and component companies would treat new players equally.

A: Yes, about three months.

A: Sign for a whole year, roughly allocated to each month, pay the advance payment according to a certain ratio, and determine the specific amount of the purchase contract at the end of the month.

A: Integrated enterprises have a great demand for N-type outsourcing because their production capacity is exhausted on components. In March, many module customers of Jietai were on-site to urge the delivery of batteries. Yiyi and Zhonglai used them for their use. Only Jietai delivered many takeaways in Ma; thethe others had about 20 million pieces. If you want to purchase 80 million parts, you can only buy 30-40 million pieces. If you need more, you can only use the P-type for now. There needs to be more than 30% of demand for outsourcing.

Tongwei now has some takeaways. Their overseas markets are in vigorous cultivation, and domestic deliveries are continuing. This month, Tongwei still has some take-out volume, and their book is small now, and the N-type is still in the transformation stage of evaluation according to market demand.

A: Jietai and Tongwei N-type power section, CTM, and other aspects meet customer requirements. Jietai and Tongwei will drop 7-8 files for storage, and Zhonglai will drop 5-6, so each company has different standards. But Tongwei and Jietai have the best CTM values, with 0.2% higher power than others.

A: Among the new players, Mubang and Huangshi will have a certain amount of output in March and April; the largest is Jietai. Zhongyu will also have 8GW in March-May. Tongwei expects to have 20GW+ transformation capacity in the year's first half. From the stability perspective, companies should first lock in the volume of head manufacturers. Leading companies have signed supply agreements with new players to cope with the subsequent outbreak of demand. The quantity has been framed, but new entrants still need a verification cycle, which depends on the specific power performance.

A: Established companies need a higher degree of cooperation with component companies. New companies must accumulate technology but have a high degree of collaboration, such as pattern customization. General verification + market introduction is about a 3-month cycle.

A: The same material makes higher power, N is 20W higher than P, minus the battery premium, there is about a 10W cost advantage.

A: There needs to be more self-owned production capacity; it is also outsourcing, not outsourcing. Yiyi has an annual production capacity of 7GW, purchased because of the large number of orders. The production capacity of 400-500MW per month is not fast. It is expected that foreign mining will account for 30% in March.

A: 7GW will be shipped in 2022, and the shipment target for this year is 13GW, so basically, 1GW a month.

A: Jinko also needs external procurement. In March, Jinko purchased 80 million N-type chips. The P-type also has external procurement requirements.

A: Judging from the quotation in March, the premium is between 8 cents and 1 cent.

A: 5 cents per watt in China, the profit of the module is not very good, and it is being repaired. Overseas one is gross.

A: The component premium will slowly rise when the battery premium is high.

A: Silicon material and quartz crucible. The industry's quartz pots are in a tight state. In the future, the price of high-purity quartz pots may reach 30,000 yuan. Now there is a need for more high-quality quartz sand. In addition, POE is also in a state of tight balance between supply and demand, but it will not be as tense as quartz crucibles. Both quartz crucible and POE are in a tight supply and demand ratio in the 23-year supply chain.

A: At the end of February, the polysilicon inventory was more than 100,000 tons, equivalent to 37 GW. In March, output, including imports, was 110,000 tons. The sales range of polysilicon materials in March is predicted to be 210-220, which is in a slow downward stage. Seven days for silicon wafers and 7-9 days for batteries. Due to inventory pressure, the price of P-type batteries has been lowered, and the price difference of N-type silicon wafers is getting broader.

A: The current premium of TOPCon cells compared to PERC cells is 8 cents to 1 cent per watt, the price premium of heterojunction cells is 1 cent to 1.5 cents per watt, and heterojunction modules are 1.8 cents to 2.5 cents more expensive than TOPCon. The output is small, and the customer base's needs are different.

A: Yuze, Meike, Zhonghuan, Longji, Shangji, Hongyuan, etc.

A: The OEM volume of leading silicon material companies and the release of silicon materials purchased by battery factories have reduced silicon wafer companies' production capacity. There need to be more takeaways.

A: Tongwei will have a total production capacity of 60-100GW in the future, of which 40GW of P-type can be changed to N-type. It is estimated that transformation accounts for 20-30% of the industry's overall N-type production capacity; the rest is newly expanded capacity.

A: Most integrated enterprises prefer to transform N from P to N and are more inclined to install N on newly purchased equipment.