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Will the SVB stock crash trigger a chain reaction?
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US Banking Crisis - The Beginning of THE Recession?

$SVB Financial(SIVB.US)$ lost over 60% of its market value in a day after the tech-focused lender (parent of Silicon Valley Bank) reported that they nearly lost $2 bil selling assets after a larger-than-expected in deposits. This however shouldn’t come as a surprise as SVB have been piling up their unrealized losses which was made available through its earnings reports. Following the saga, the four largest banks in the US (JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) lost $52 bil in market cap (in a day) as well.
Collectively, the banking industry has more than $600 bil in unrealized losses on its securities holdings as they hoard extra cash in bonds when interest rates were super low (back then in 2020), but now that the US Federal Reserve has hiked more than 475 bps of fed funds rate in a little bit over a year, the prices of bonds have gone down significantly.
Traditionally, banks won’t have to sell their bonds at a loss unless they have big fund outflows if customers withdraw in masses, in that case, they would have no choice but to be forced to sell their assets to cover deposit withdrawals. However, such a scenario is less likely banks usually have enough regulatory reserves to cushion such impact, even if customers are starting to move their deposits into bonds with higher yield. Banks don’t incur losses on their bond portfolios if they held onto it until maturity, unless they are forced to sell them at a loss to raise cash.
But, the fear of such possibility has sent shockwaves through the entire US banking industry, heck, the US market as a whole. Investors were already put on alert when Silvergate Capital Corp announced bankruptcy (one of the crypto market’s top banks) announced bankruptcy after the 2022 crypto market meltdown which sparked a deposit run that forced it to sell billions of dollars of assets at a steep loss. Analysts are saying that this could be the crack in the financial industry.
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