高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Mar 13, 2023 08:59

Opportunities outweigh risks.

The large non-farm payrolls on Friday were actually positive, but Silicon Valley Bank, this idiot teammate, dragged down the market. The 3900-point level has been lost. Currently, it has dropped directly to the next key support level at 3800, which I believe can be held. Silicon Valley Bank is its own problem, but the overall U.S. banking industry is still healthy. I bought in two batches on Friday and today. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Although currently at a floating loss, I still hold on. I don't expect a stock market crash in the short term or a repeat of Lehman Brothers.

Tomorrow CPI will be released, and personally, I don't think there will be any major surprises. I believe that the prices in February will be similar to those in January, and I haven't seen any signals of continued price hikes. Although the service industry still struggles to find employees, I don't think wages will continue to rise. As for McDonald's in my area, $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ ever since the hourly wage was increased to 15 a few months ago, it hasn't increased further. The only change is that the recruitment advertisements have become bigger and more numerous, but the salary remains at 15. Of course, as the saying goes, data is data, and interpretation is interpretation.

I have bought spy again, with a cost of 381 and a stop loss set at 376.

As for tlt, I have sold everything except for my retirement fund to take profits. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$

Short-term speculation is only for hedging. The current interest rate environment does not support tlt at a price of 108. In the face of stagflation, inflation needs to be addressed first. If the Fed still cares about inflation, they will continue to raise interest rates. But as I mentioned before, I don't think tlt will reach a new low. The range of 90-100 is still where I plan to add more positions.

Before, when tlt was at 100, many friends questioned my bullish view. I also had my doubts and ended up selling half at 102.

There are three elements to consider when predicting the direction, magnitude, and timing of events. It is difficult to be correct on all three. Being correct on two is already good enough. This time, I correctly guessed the direction (bullish), and the magnitude (significantly outperformed the S&P), but I got the timing wrong. I thought tlt would first drop back to around 95, then rise again after the Fed raised interest rates.

Blame it on Silicon Valley Bank, this bad teammate.

Fortunately, the government stepped in and fully compensated, otherwise Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy would be the straw that breaks the back of a large wave of small businesses.

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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : Buy fewer spies However, the stock market has fluctuated a lot recently, so it's better to be cautious

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高贵的阿德莱德

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