Iron ore and A-share market weekly report and global capital market weekly report.
Overall, looking at it
- The global shipping volume of iron ore has slightly increased, with reduced maintenance and rainfall, so the subsequent supply is relatively stable. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
- The blast furnace operation rate continues to increase, with increased demand for infrastructure steel and partial recovery in real estate.
- The National Development and Reform Commission is still concerned about the issue of rapid rise in iron ore prices and is alert to the risk of price decline for the ore.
On the supply side
- The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 0.684 million tons compared to the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia increased by 0.344 million tons to 18.356 million tons, while the shipping volume from Brazil increased by 0.34 million tons to 6.257 million tons. The non-mainstream delivery decreased by 0.458 million tons to 4.508 million tons.
- The maintenance of ports in Australia and Brazil has decreased, and short-term shipping will still be relatively stable.
On the demand side
• 247 steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 82.00%, an increase of 0.93% compared to last week; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 88.03%, an increase of 0.89%; steel mill profit margin was 49.35%, an increase of 6.49% compared to last month.
• The average daily pig iron production was 2.3647 million tons, an increase of 0.0211 million tons compared to last week.
As for inventory
• The national iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 137.7003 million tons, a decrease of 2.3053 million tons compared to last week; the average daily port clearing volume decreased by 0.1099 million tons to 3.1078 million tons.
• Overseas arrivals are expected to increase slightly.
A-share market weekly report and global capital market weekly report
1) The recent market adjustment is mainly due to overseas liquidity pressure. The US employment inflation exceeded expectations, and starting from February 9, the US bond rate slope exceeded 20 basis points in 20 days, causing significant adjustments in global markets in the following month.
2) Silicon Valley Bank defaults, possible slowdown in Fed tightening (10-year t-note yield drops 23bp on March 10), but increased uncertainty overseas, similar pressure may be prevalent in US banks, need to closely monitor global situation going forward.
3) We continue to maintain a positive outlook on the market, with a median annual yield of 10-15% and an increase in index. Will definitely focus on two main themes throughout the year, recent adjustments present a good opportunity for positioning. Represented by sse 50, the economic recovery and large cap blue-chips starting with "zhong", especially strategic emerging industries, central enterprises with stock-based incentives. Represented by technology and innovation, the "digital economy" (telecom operators + innovation + industrial internet) is expected to take over the baton from the "new energy". $SSE 50 Index (000016.SH)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
Global Fund Market Weekly Report
The 2-year treasury yield has dropped by 85 basis points over the past 3 trading days (starting from Wednesday, March 8th, the day Powell completed his testimony).
In the past 40 years, there has been only 1 instance of a 2-year decline exceeding 3 days, which was during the stock market crash of 1987.
Similarly, last Wednesday, the market priced in an 80% chance of a 50 basis points interest rate hike.
Now, the probability of NO MOVE is 44%.
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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