What to Expect in the Week Ahead ( Fed Decision, Banking Fallout; NKE, PDD and GIS Earnings)

The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday will be the main event during a week with several notable earnings reports and investor days, plus the latest economic data.

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon, with a decision due at 2 p.m. ET. Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. Futures markets-implied odds of changes in the federal-funds rate have swung wildly after a series of bank crises. Going into the week, odds were leaning toward a quarter-point hike.

Central-bank watchers will also be awaiting a decision from the Bank of England on Thursday. Back in Washington, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before Congressional subcommittees on Wednesday and Thursday. She's expected to discuss the recent turmoil in banks, President Joe Biden's fiscal-2024 budget proposal, and the latest on the U.S. debt ceiling.

The economic-data highlights of the week will fall on Friday: The Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for February and S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' indexes for March. There will also be data on the U.S. housing market published earlier in the week.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 million homes sold, 200,000 more than in January. Existing-home sales have fallen for 12 consecutive months to the lowest level in more than a decade, as sharply rising mortgage rates have sent a chill through the housing market.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appears before a Senate subcommittee to discuss President Joe Biden's fiscal-2024 budget proposal. She will testify on Thursday before a House Appropriations subcommittee, with the debt-ceiling battle at the forefront.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 75% chance that the FOMC will raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%-5.00%. Less than two weeks ago, following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony in front of the Senate, the discussion on Wall Street was whether the central bank would raise interest rates by a quarter or a half percentage point at this meeting. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank has caused historic swings in the bond market, with yields plunging at the swiftest rate in four decades.

The Bank of England announces its monetary-policy decision. The market sees it as a coin flip whether the BOE will keep its bank rate unchanged at 4% or raise it by a quarter of a percentage point.

The Census Bureau reports new residential-sales statistics for February. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000 new homes sold, 35,000 less than previously.

The Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for February. Economists forecast that new orders for manufactured durable goods will increase 0.6% from January, to $274 billion. Excluding transportation, durable goods are seen gaining 0.5%.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' indexes for March. The consensus call is for a 47 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 50.2 for the Services PMI. Both figures are roughly even with the February data.