Tencent Q4 2022 Earnings Preview — Guessing the % change in closing price to win!

Tencent Holdings (TCEHY)'s Q4 FY22 Earnings Conference Call is to be hosted on March 22, HKT, after the HK markets close! The consensus estimate for revenue is expected at CNY 143.84 billion, indicating a flat result compared to the same quarter last year. The EPS is estimated at CNY 2.78 for this quarter.

Financial Estimates

Affected by various factors over the past year, Tencent's revenue growth has been under pressure for multiple quarters. However, thanks to stable businesses such as social media and financial technology, the decline in Tencent's revenue has been relatively small. Based on the financial reports already disclosed and analysts' expectations for Q4, Tencent's revenue is expected to remain at a high level of between CNY 550-560 billion for FY2022.

Tencent President Liu Chiping revealed during the Q3 earnings call that video ad revenue has been snowballing, with expected revenue of over CNY 1 billion for a single quarter in Q4. According to WeChat Open Course data, the playback volume of original content on its video platform increased by 350% year-on-year (YoY) in 2022. The viewing scale of its video platform grew by 300%, and the viewing time increased by 156%.

For Tencent's Gaming sector, analysts predict that the Q4 mobile game revenue will be CNY 37.6 billion, a decrease of 6% (YoY), mainly due to the decline of domestic market's "League of Legends" and overseas market's "PUBG Mobile". The revenue for PC games is expected to remain flat at CNY 10.6 billion. It is expected that the overseas market will grow due to the outstanding performance of "Valorant" and "Warhammer 40K: Dark Tide".

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