UPDATE March 22
IT'S FINALLY HERE!!!
FED reckoning day.
I expect a mini run to a decent run. But then -
Why?
Inflation.
The FED has a dual mandate
1.) Full Employment:
currently 3.6%
1.) Stable Prices
Inflation is currently 6.4%, and the fed goal is 2%
One of these is not like the other.
Do you see "take care of the stock market"???? - NO
This entire FED pause rally is Ludacris! "But iam, things changed, Powell broke something"
DUH, he told you this would happen in FED speak.
"While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."
Don't think he cares about wrecking the markets.
What iam looking for.
The Dot Plot is the voting members' view of where they see rates going. This is the last release. If we see dots where the red writing is or the teal boxes, look out below.
the market is currently pricing in a soft landing (no profits recession), which is why we have 18X+ evaluations. These should get re-priced -20% for a recession. That should happen quickly. I believe it starts today, but it could be tomorrow or maybe even Friday. If the market gets some jubilee excitement and runs, I will be patiently waiting to short more.
iam old enough to have grandparents who lived through the great depression. I would often ask about the depression, and they all had one common theme - DO NOT TRUST BANKS!!! a hard lesson every 3rd generation needs to learn. The first generation builds wealth, the second spends it, the 3rd destroys it, and the 4th is enslaved by the debt .... also why I'm not leaving anything ![]()
and how we get historical cycles.
Well, soap box over, here we go.
I have a new short position I started yesterday.
$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US$ it flew too high too fast.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ Could run up, maybe 312. If it runs and breaks 313, if it does, it should reach 319. But I have it going down, down baby
$Spdr S&P Bank Etf(KBE.US$ Banks should continue a morning rebound to 40.
$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Ran super Hot 🔥 I hope it continues so Powell the fire retarder can douse it. Or send it to 210, so i can get more from my short ![]()
$First Solar(FSLR.US$ Re-entered my short position.
The indicies -
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise
and as always
Good Luck ![]()
it's rough seas 🌊 ahead. Don't capsize your account. I see new lows sooner than later![]()
Also, I have a different view of Chinese stocks. They may sell down with the US stocks, but i think China is easing their economy. So Chinese companies may see a boost. And if us stocks are declining and Chinese stocks start rising, the inflow could be great.
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股勇者 : hope u r right about the last paragraph on Chinese economy and stock market
iamiam OP : oh, and iam traveling again
razo2 : could it be that china is already doing rate cuts the past 2 months to try to save a dying economy?
iamiam OP razo2 : yes
iamiam OP razo2 : China will eventually crash, but hard to tell when, or how far. they did a good job deflating their economy.
razo2 : I totally agree with you on the banks. really someone wrote something that speaks my mind out. but I don't not think one second today will collapse, in fact they will try to lure retail investors back in to hold the bag.
the fed is already talking to the banks. I do not think they are there talking about how to balance their account books to save the other banks. likely a calculations of projections on when to pull the rug and how much.
razo2 : and I am sorry to say this to the US market. China market is already way ahead of us when it comes to recession preparation.
iamiam OP razo2 : they warned yesterday or the day before of "rapid global rate increases" hmmmmm
razo2 iamiam OP : yes, I totally agree on this. not to mention they recently secure the trade of oil in Yuan. this will give USD a run to fight against the East. US calls it a trade war, china (imo) is just like any business man. they want trade security, they saw how Russia was isolated by the dollar. they too want to secure footing like any business owner.
ragamuffin : Good stuff! Either way Jerry turns I believe we see “sell the news!”
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