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TikTok ban good for Meta and YouTube?

It was clear to most people that the recent congressional hearing of TikTok's CEO Chew Shou Zi was a setup.

The verdict of 'sell TikTok else ban it' has already been predetermined.

The hearing seemed to serve as a platform to voice concerns about TikTok's alleged ties to the Chinese government, rather than a genuine effort to engage in a business discussion.

It is about politics, not business, and TikTok is the scapegoat.

Some may argue that the US ban on Chinese apps is a justified response to China's own bans on popular American social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube.

However, it's important to note that the political philosophies of these two countries are vastly different. The US values free markets and capitalism, and believes that companies should compete based on their own merits.

Banning any company on geopolitical grounds goes against these principles, which have been the foundation of the US's success. If the ban on Chinese apps is implemented, it could set a dangerous precedent that undermines the competitiveness of the US in the long run.

If the US views China as an unworthy or inferior country, it would be counterproductive to stoop to their level by implementing similar bans.

In the past, Chinese apps were largely restricted to the Chinese market, and many were seen as mere copies of American apps. However, in recent years, the tide has shifted, and Chinese apps have made a significant impact on the global market.

TikTok, in particular, has become a cultural phenomenon, with even Americans joining in on the trend.

It's worth noting that in March 2023, the top four most downloaded apps in the US were all made in China (Temu, CapCut, TikTok, and Shein).

This trend is likely causing concern among some Americans who are not used to being surpassed by China outside of China, and could be one of the reasons to call for the ban.

The rise of TikTok has become a significant threat to Meta, the parent company of Facebook, especially given the challenges it faces with the Apple privacy law, a slowdown in the ad industry, and Zuckerberg's ambition to build a metaverse. These factors have led to a loss of half a trillion dollars in market cap for Meta.

Zuckerberg has publicly acknowledged the threat of TikTok and has responded by launching Reels on both Facebook and Instagram, attempting to emulate TikTok's success. Similarly, YouTube has also introduced Shorts, its own version of short-form video content.

In terms of revenue, TikTok still has some way to go to catch up with the likes of Meta and YouTube. While TikTok's revenue was an impressive $11 billion in 2022, it still pales in comparison to Meta's revenue of $117 billion and YouTube's $29 billion over the same period.

When it comes to time spent on the platform, TikTok has taken the lead in 2022. With its rapidly growing user base and highly engaging content, TikTok has captured the attention of younger generations in a way that other social media platforms have struggled to do.

As TikTok's popularity continues to soar, advertisers are likely to shift their advertising dollars to the platform in order to reach its vast and engaged audience.

TikTok's potential for revenue growth is evident in its projected 40% increase this year. Meanwhile, Meta's first quarter guidance points to a mere 2% year-over-year growth.

In addition to its impact on the advertising industry, TikTok's cultural influence and ability to shape trends cannot be underestimated. The platform has become a driving force in music, fashion, and entertainment, and has the power to launch careers and shape public discourse in ways that few other social media platforms can.

There are several factors that suggest a forced sale of TikTok may not materialize.

Firstly, TikTok's valuation of $220 billion makes it too big for any company to swallow. For comparison, the largest acquisition to date has been Microsoft's $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard.

Secondly, many of the Big Tech companies are currently in retrenchment mode, with a slowdown in their core businesses. This makes it unlikely that they would be in a position to make a significant acquisition like TikTok.

Thirdly, any Big Tech company that were to acquire TikTok would likely face significant anti-trust concerns. An acquisition by a major player in the tech industry could raise further concerns about monopolistic behavior.

Lastly, a forced sale of TikTok would almost certainly be met with opposition from the Chinese government, potentially escalating geopolitical tensions between the two countries.

If the sale of TikTok doesn't go through, the US government could still decide to ban the app. While such a ban could benefit Meta and YouTube in the US market, it would not eliminate TikTok's competition globally.

It is worth noting that Meta's revenue is generated mostly outside of North America. Therefore, even if TikTok is banned in the US, Meta still has to compete against the app in other regions.

Ultimately, a ban on TikTok would not solve all the problems for the US government, given that it is a complex issue with geopolitical implications. It is likely to remain a political issue that will affect the entire world for many years to come.
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