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Markets Are Wrong on US Rate-Cut Bets, BlackRock Says

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Analysts Notebook wrote a column · Mar 30, 2023 23:50
The Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates despite traders betting otherwise as fears of a banking crisis convulse markets, as stubborn inflation will provide more challenge to the Fed due to a tight labor market, according to BlackRock Inc.
The world's largest money manager favors inflation-linked bonds — securities that offer protection against rising prices — on the belief that markets are incorrect in expecting imminent US rate cuts as the economy slips into a slump. This time is different as the Fed and its peers have made clear that troubles buffeting the banking sector won't halt their battle against inflation, BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Wei Li wrote in a client note.
Source: Twitter / @Ayesha Tariq
Source: Twitter / @Ayesha Tariq
We don't see rate cuts this year – that's the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit," the strategists said. "We see a new, more nuanced phase of curbing inflation ahead: less fighting but still no rate cuts."
Markets Are Wrong on US Rate-Cut Bets, BlackRock Says
Yields on US two-year notes — among the most sensitive securities to changes in central-bank policy —rebounded this week from near the lowest levels this year as jitters around banking-sector contagion ease. While investors have returned to pricing in the possibility of a quarter-point Fed hike in May, they are also betting that markets aren't out of the woods yet, and thatthe Fed may ease by 65 basis points by year's end.
We think the Fed could only deliver the rate cuts priced in by markets if a more serious credit crunch took hold and caused an even deeper recession than we expect," the BlackRock strategists said.
Recent speech given by Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson added credence to BlackRock's view.
The current inflation rate is too high. It is the goal of the Federal Open Market Committee to get it back down to 2%, in a way that is sooner as opposed to later," Jefferson said Monday in Lexington, Virginia. "It is going to take some time because there are components of inflation that have turned out to be quite persistent — for example, services excluding housing."
So I would like to say that inflation will return to 2% soon, but we have to do it in a way that does not damage the economy any more than is necessary," he said. "That's what we are trying to do."
Source: Bloomberg
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