Seize this wave of bear market rebound, but not the bull market
A few days ago, I wrote: go long on dips, don't chase up, don't go short. As the risk of a thunderstorm in the banking sector recedes and expectations of interest rate hikes peak, combined with the Federal Reserve's “big water release,” it is likely that there will be a good rebound before May. 4,000 points is currently S&P's support level. If you can buy at this position, I think the opportunities outweigh the risks. If it falls below 4,000, the loss is stopped, so the closer the purchase price is to 4,000 points, the less risk and the greater the return. If you miss it, there's no need to push higher. The bear market is not over yet. There are still opportunities, and if you put money in a monetary fund, the earnings are almost no longer as good as the return on stocks. If I want to go short, I also have to wait until it rises to a high level, such as 4250 or even 4300, before entering the market. The stop loss is set at 4350, so the potential risk is not great, but at least I don't plan to consider shorting at the moment.
The reason it's still a bear market rebound is because a bigger gray rhino is brewing. The Federal Reserve is making a big gamble.
As Bao Laoge said: 1. The crisis in the banking sector will prompt banks to tighten credit, and its effect is equivalent to raising interest rates; 2. The temporary release of liquidity is meant to cover banks, not qe. However, this is the biggest problem. How can Lao Bao ensure that the above two can be achieved?
Let's talk about the first point. Real estate is once again booming as expectations of interest rate hikes peaked. The stock market is also returning like a bull market. At this time, interest rates are still high, and demand for loans is strong. Banks are lending at this time, and the profits are extremely lucrative. Will the greedy banking industry really watch a big fat sheep slip away? If the banking industry is willing to sacrifice profits to control risk, then this is long overdue. Even our retail investors know that interest rate hikes will cause long-term bonds to fall, and it's impossible for banks not to understand. And what did the banks do? Hedging risks, hiding losses through bookkeeping, and finally thunderstorms![]()
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Also, if a bank takes a usury loan from the Federal Reserve, will honestly put it there as a reserve fund to pay interest to the Federal Reserve? As the crowding crisis recedes, banks will get bogged down. As long as the Federal Reserve does not take back this part of the money, some banks will dare to release it. However, once it is taken back, there is a risk that banks will once again explode.
The Federal Reserve's hope to tighten the currency with banks is a big gamble. If the bet is wrong, the bank quietly waterproofs, and inflation rises again. At that time, the Federal Reserve will take action again, and banks will have to thunder again, and inflation is already stubborn. I'm worried that inflation won't fall, and it has remained high at 4-5%. But the economy couldn't keep up. That's the biggest risk. If the economy falls into stagnation and the Federal Reserve returns to the Paul Walker era, God knows what it will look like.
I hope Lao Bao didn't make a mistake with his bet, or at least there are countermeasures.
In terms of individual stocks, $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ It's too tall, I can't catch up. $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ After a few days of correction, the price was reasonable, and I bought some. $Tesla(TSLA.US$ I think the benefits have been exhausted; we need to take advantage of the high and the profit before reporting the financial results. $Enphase Energy(ENPH.US$ ， $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ as well $Cloudflare(NET.US$ These high-quality second-tier technology stocks are likely to have a good rebound. inasmuch $Intel(INTC.US$ The increase was so sharp that I reduced my position, but $Qualcomm(QCOM.US$ I'm currently optimistic about semiconductor stocks.
As for $3M(MMM.US$ $Pfizer(PFE.US$ It's finally a bit tempting to go up. It's really not easy.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ I'm still optimistic about bonds. Even if it falls into stagflation, the decline in bonds will not exceed that of S&P $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ When inflation is stagnant, as long as the rise is resolved, it can be waterproof; at that time, bonds should be bought. However, stagflation will cause great trauma to the economy. Recovery will take some time, and the risk of the stock market will still be huge.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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70158005 : Where did the gray rhinoceros come from? Aren't they going back to the bull market?