Is bad news no longer good news? There are frequent signs of loosening in the U.S. economy, and non-farm payrolls become the next market focus.

Several economic data released by the United States this week fell short of expectations almost across the board, sparking concerns about interest rate hikes and the spillover effects of the banking crisis.

The latest data showed signs of cooling in the U.S. services sector amid a persistent manufacturing slump. What worries the outside world is the loosening of the labor market and services sector, which is the key to the U.S. economy's resilience in the interest rate hike cycle.

Data show that the Federal Reserve's JOLTS job vacancies fell to 9.9 million in February, a 21-month low. ADP's employment in a small non-farm sector in March is also far from agency forecasts.

Same-store sales fell 1.1% in March, the first monthly decline since April 2020. After growing by more than 6% in December last year and January this year, Costco's same-store sales growth in February has slowed to 3.5%. The March data shows that the situation has not improved but has deteriorated.

Federal funds rate futures show that investors have further lowered the Fed's policy expectations for next month, and the probability of no action is expected to be close to 60% again. The pricing of recession has also boosted the possibility of interest rate cuts this year. Morgan Stanley also said that bad news is no longer good news. Last year, the market logic of economic slowdown →, lower interest rates, → rising U.S. stocks were being reversed; The economy became more vigorous.