UPDATE April

I had a realization. It's been about a year since I started doing daily posts. wow, time sure does fly by 🕊

I also have a confession. i have not been making posts that iam happy with lately. They have been too short and put together at the last minute, even though i started well earlier. Something is wrong, and I can't put my finger on it. Actually, I can 😒. But that's enough confession. Now restitution. I will post something I can be happy with. Agree or disagree, I hope you enjoy the ride/read. It's going to be long. Buckle up and take some time...... Go to the end for today's portion of the post 📫....... I'm starting at 11:00 pm on fools Saturday 🙃.  I have no idea when I will post this, but it won't matter. Why, you may ask. Allow me to show you with 1 chart.

If you have not guessed, this will be a longer outlook. Something has come to me. An epiphany  ✨️ I was focusing too much on intra day moves. This works well for me, but it does not help anyone else much. So this will be a longer outlook, a few weeks to months.

That said, I still don't want to own anything here unless it's an inverse/bear ETF a VIX ETF/ETN or yields, and I would just leg into it, a little at a time until the confirmed downtrend. Here are some leveraged  short ETF/ETN's on the major indicies, and some leveraged bull VIX ETF/ETN's. 

This first portion will seem like old news now, but I have been trying to alert everyone to Oil, Silver, and Gold I just wasn't my normal loud self.... wait to read the entire post, iam long term bullish on Gold but believe it will go down, as in we peaked/ will peak soon for the medium term, maybe the year 🤷‍♂️.

There is something to remember about me:

Why do I always buy Gold, Silver and Black Gold ie Oil (i always buy physical and futures. iam NOT always buying stocks)?     Because as my good friends Bachman and Turner (in Overdrive) tell me...

🎶 "I think that any color gold is good gold, so i took what i could get. Yes, i took what i could get. And the charts looked like big green bars, that say -  You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet!... B b baaaby, You Just Ain't Seen n-n-Nothing Yet.    Heres something that you're never gonna forget. B b Baby - You just Ain't Seen N-Nothing Yet!"... "You Ain't been around" 🎶 🎸💿

Alright, enough lyrics, let's dance 💃

First, I like the servicers and the drillers, offshore or on. I don't like the big Refiners ( $Chevron(CVX.US)$ $Marathon Petroleum(MPC.US)$ , $Valero Energy(VLO.US)$ , $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)$ , $Shell PLC(SHEL.US)$ , $Phillips 66(PSX.US)$ ). They will come under political pressure for "price gauging" because this administration is incompetent and offers no solutions, only blame, misdirection, denial, and pain.

This seems a day late now 😕. I didn't know oil would blow up, thanks to OPEC. It was bound to happen, I just didn't think it was going to be now

a look at some oil.

Some of the tickers I like.

Downside is in the 240's, but if we get the sell down I think we do I could see sub 200 again.

On the weekly chart, price is at the mid bollinger, if oil breaks out (I don't think it will, YET!) and the stock market holds (I don't think it will) this could break the mid bollinger and march towards 62. But more likely, we go down. Whether we drift or drop, it makes no difference to me, but I think it drifts. These guys are loaded with cash. Much like the big tech, they will be the last to be sold. You Sell the Generals last! When the generals all fall, that's how you know it's a market decline and not a pull back... Anyways, it is my belief we go down to the lower weekly bollinger around 42. If the market decline is really bad, then we could test the 100-day MA around 32. Once we bottom the march towards 62+ begins (and probably a swift initial surge, because You Buy the Generals FIRST!).

Similar to SLB, i expect I mild push up, maybe a day or two followed by a decline to 29. If it's a steep sell off, it won't stop until around 23. But then! on towards 45.

The others have rallied hard, while BKR has not... YET. Out of all, this looks the strongest.

it has near upside to 30, with a strong push or a little longer outlook, we have up to 36.

below mid bollinger, I have low 20s as consolidation zone.

I believe we've reached a top, or a near top in gold and silver. I sold a bunch over the last few weeks... I was hanging out at the bullion dealer shooting the breeze (that's what old retired people do, I guess😆), and noticed the string of buyers, not regular buyers, but new unknown buyers. They were buying anything from a couple hundred dollars to tens of thousands. Naturally, i became curious, and that makes me chatty 😁 (one of my better traits, I have no problem feeding my curiosity). I discovered that many had been denied money transfers or other forms of restrictions from their banks. (This is something I wouldn't know, I don't deal with banks. They are a payment service, not a storage facility). They were scared. That leads to panic buying. I learned something very young, from an odd source, it wasn't taught to me, it was a phrase from a movie (a great movie), but even as a child, I understood it -

"Can't you see what is happening here? Don't you see what's happening??? Potter isn't selling Potters buying. And why? Because we're panicking, and he's not."

I learned that groups panic irrationally. I also learned the wealthy do not. I used to attribute this to them having money, therefore no stress, now I can tell that is not true. They are calm because it is a trait of making and keeping money.

Something important that I should say about my projection for gold; it can fall to 1730 and still remain BULLISH. It's hard to imagine, but it is true. This is because it would need to break the 50MA on the monthly to turn bearish. The monthly bear runs have only lasted 4 - 6 months since 2016, and we have only had 4 of them. There have been only 2 gold bearish monthly periods since the 2020 high despite 17 red months compared to only 13 green months. This is a sign of consolidation..... That all being said, I believe we go down. Down below 1600. If you can see the purple rectangle (I know it's hard, that chart is messy😄) I believe we fall to where the bottom of that rectangle meets the yellow dashed uptrend line. IF gold holds at a price between 1930-1980 and then resumes its uptrend, we could still be in the bull market and pushing for new highs. This is possible because gold has reached a new high against every other currency.

This is hard to imagine because everything is so bullish in gold. But that's why I don't believe it. There is little chance they sell gold to the masses and then let the price increase the way people believe.... iam a gold bug at heart, and I believe gold is massively UNDERVALUED. But it's also paper traded and manipulated. Until that changes, it will remain undervalued. That time is approaching, but not yet. The US is going to strengthen the dollar. This is accomplished by raising rates, which puts pressure on gold.

Similar to gold, I see silver topping out soon. How much of a pullback we get will show what kind of trend we are in moving forward. If the price pulls back to the 22-24 range and gets another strong push, we could still be in a strong uptrend.

i was listening to the farm report. Sadly, even the farm report has gone the factual way of the dodo. It is now 10% fact and 90% useless. Since it is on my mind, I will start with the weather. This is a year or longer outlook.... It's going to be DRY. It looks like it's going to be a La Nina year. That should correlate to drought in Australia, Africa, South America, and most of the midwest and eastern US. Countered with strong precipitation in Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia, with Eastern Asia having increasing odds of cyclone landfall... When Africa and the Middle East have droughts, wars break out. When people are hungry, social unrest and upheaval begin. On top of this, the current world crop production has been poor, the chicken population was halved, and beef cattle are among the lowest numbers ever. Bird flu killed the chicken population. This has partially caused the astronomical egg prices. The droughts this last year caused beef producers to prematurely send their beef to auction. THIS INCLUDED BREADERS!!!! That is so bad, I can't even begin to explain. The beef production dropped more rapidly than at any other time in history. And you thought meat was already expensive? that was with producers dumping their product onto the market. Just imagine what the price is going to be now that the production is drastically reduced??? Raise your own or find someone who does. Join a food co-op, grow a garden, raise animals, just find a way to maintain access to food, and a grocery store does NOT count, do not depend on a market!!!...

I don't know if its a stronger dollar that is going to hurt corn, but corn should be coming down. There are export concerns with US corn. I don't think this is putting pressure on corn, but it might be. Whatever the reason, I see corn challenging the 20 range. The plantings are above past acres in planting. That could be putting pressure on price. This should bottom out near June, and give a better example of future price. Right now, plantings are estimates, so projected yields are merely guesses.

Wheat had a bad winter wheat season, and plantings appear to be late this year. I travel through wheat country and have seen a trend that has not slowed, and I have not seen in my lifetime. Farmland is for sale all over the place. This is farmland that never used to go on sale. Now, it seems no one wants it. This has got to be a major future problem, but I'm not sure how this plays out yet. I know that farmers are fighting government and environmentalists over water rights. In the eyes of environmentalists, farmers are evil polluters. In the eyes of government, they are land barons ripe for tax harvesting. Both groups don't care about what effects their policies have, they both just want power, and your ability to feed yourself and your family IS NOT THEIR CONCERN. Not while there is money to be squeezed. On top of this, Russia is taking control of the world grain trade, allowing countries to choose between the heavy-handed US trade with the troubled dollar. Or russian grain with no political pressure attached and payment can be made in a variety of ways.

Coming into grilling season and beef is spendy. And it's only going to get worse. Last year, the droughts caused producers to sell their herds prematurely, and as I reported last year, they were killing their breeders. That means this year's herds are smaller, and there is still a drought in the southwest. the largest cattle producing area. On top of this, the world (specifically Brazil) is becoming less friendly towards trade with the US. Food is going to get more expensive.

FERTILIZERS

in a downtrend, should follow natgas. I see a bottoming sometime within a month or so.

Holding a bottom better than MOS. 2 years ago I started to accumulate IPI in the 20s. It paid off greatly as I sold it between 80-120.

NatGas is nearing a bottom, another month or so of bouncing around? this could do what oil did and just bounce one day on some kind of news.

STEEL

A stronger dollar will negatively affect commodities, including steel. They report on the 25th, and they should have great earnings. Can we bottom before then? or will earnings just add to the selling?

a comparable steel manufacturer. X focuses more on construction and manufacturing building materials.

A multinational steel manufacturer, mainly Europe. Nearly 2 years of hitting against a ceiling. I'm waiting for the 150MA (teal) to catch up and the 50MA (green) to combine and drive the price up. If this happens, it would be another couple weeks to play out.

MARKETS

Here is the problem I have with the markets right now. Indicators say we are in a bullish move in a bull market so far this year. But my wave projection says we should make a new low. And we should do it soon. Soon, as within a few weeks soon (that's to hit a new low, on QQQ, that's an 80-point drop!). These 2 extremes must be worked out somehow. So that is the problem I have been trying to deal with. I hold long dated puts and play short dated calls.

a possible runner

The sleeping dragon finally looks to reawaken

Baba looks like it wants to make a major push upwards. I hate putting a time label on anything because the market does what it does when it does, but I see 139 before July. That's nearly 10 dollars a month or 10%. That ain't not bad.

Daily market outlook

well, I am not happy with this post at all, I have a lot to cover, but I am not happy how I covered it. I think the reason why is because I wouldn't want to own anything here. I'm not enthusiastic about anything, not gold, not oil, not silver, not stock, nothing. there is nothing I would own as an investor unless it was an inverse or vix. And now, as I type, the market is selling down. Will it continue??? I hope so, I'm tired of waiting for this. Making daily bullish moves while constantly adding to inverse and vix for the inevitable downside is tiresome and boring. I don't necessarily believe we are selling off yet. If we are, that's fine. I am prepared. If it holds support, I will be ready for the bullish push. I also wouldn't go short here. Honestly, the best bet is short duration money markets or some other short duration fixed rate return. The market is a wasteland, by years end we should be rid of many of the tickers. Those with negative earnings, newer SPACS, or speculative assets should thin drastically (another reason I wouldn't own anything). The US is dying, and that means the markets will die with it. What we are witnessing are the last grasps of the system hanging onto the dying dollar. By 2025, nothing in this market will be recognizable (another reason i wouldn't own anything, those saying to have a 5 or 10 year outlook were correct mostly on the past, but if you invested before 1929 99% never saw a return after, just food for thought), the trade will be narrowed, the terms and the medium will be changed, and retail will be driven from the market. You (retail) are being blamed for the problems in the market. when everyone's retirements get wiped out, retail will be blamed, and access to the markets will be removed or limited. Get what you can, while you can, because it will soon be gone... I know iam upbeat today, right?

OK, that being said, let's see what Mr Market wants to do today.

13000 should be solid daily support.

look for the 200MA to hold support on the hourly.

33575 might be support today. with 33720 as resistance.

Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise

and as always

Good Luck

wow, I have got to do better. apologies in advance.