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A Deep Dive on PayPal: Is it a good time to Buy?

A couple of years ago, PayPal was all the hype. Today, the stock is down 75% from its all-time high. Once a growth stock, PayPal is now moving towards value stock territory. The big question here is this. Is PayPal worth buying right now? Is it a bargain or is it a value trap?
PayPal's business model is based on the volume of transactions. The more transactions, the more fees the company gets. In 2022, users, transactions and payment volume on PayPal increased.
2% increase in users to 435 million with 8.6 million new net accounts added
Out of these, 400 million were consumer active accounts and 35 million were active merchant accounts
16% increase in number of transactions to 22.3 billion
9% total payment volume increase to $1.36 trillion on a spot basis so basically without adjusting for any forex changes.
Competition
PayPal appears to have the best international payment support. PayPal owns Xoom which allows users to send payments to users in 131 countries without the recipient needing an app or a smartphone. The recipient can just pick up the payment at their local bank.
Analyst Expectations
Despite the above, analysts are expecting a steady growth in earnings per share over the next few years. The consensus is:
18.33% in 2023
15.28% in 2024
13.07% in 2025
Conclusion
The management has said that they think share buybacks are an excellent way to spend their capital and I agree. They estimate that 75% of the free cash flow in 2023 will go towards share repurchases. In my opinion, this will create bullish pressure for the company. It will reduce the floating stock, it will increase ownership for existing shareholders and it will boost metrics. In terms of target price, the analyst consensus right now is $103.4 dollars or about a 38% upside on the current price of $75. I think that's a reasonable target for the next 12 to 18 months.
What do you think? Is Paypal a good purchase right now?
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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