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ใ๐บ๐ธ Recap of the American market ๐บ๐ธใ
โ
Exchange rate
โซ๏ธThe dollar is falling
โซ๏ธFollowing the slowing growth of CPI, it has been increasingly speculated that the FRB will stop tightening after deciding to raise rates in May.
โVoice from the market
โซ๏ธWith the overall inflation rate dropping more than expected, the view that the rate hike will basically end after one more increase has been supported.
โซ๏ธThis does not necessarily indicate the end of inflation yet.
- Bond.
Yield decreases.
After a rate hike in May, there is a possibility that the financial tightening may temporarily pause.
โVoice from the market
I do not believe that the CPI will correct the FRB's trajectory.
With easing price pressures and signs of labor market stabilization, a temporary sense of security is likely to spread in the market.
It is positive news, but it does not mean the end of tightening.
โ
Stock
Decline.
From the FOMC minutes, it was revealed that a Federal Reserve official expressed concerns about liquidity crisis at local banks.
The FOMC minutes concluded that ultimately, prioritizing inflation response is necessary.
โVoice from the market
It became clear in the minutes that the Federal Reserve remains concerned about bank crises and high prices.
It is expected that the inflation trend will become more evident in the PPI on the 13th.
How to perceive the CPI
The fact that the overall inflation rate slowed down more than expected essentially supports the view that it will end with one more rate hike.
There was a possibility of an additional rate hike in June if the inflation rate grew more than expected, so the market was very cautious. However, the growth of the overall inflation rate significantly slowed down from 6.0% year-on-year to 5.0%.
If this trend continues and the economy sharply decelerates, there will be room for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.
It is unlikely that the FRB will shift to interest rate cuts within the year, and interest rate cuts within the year will only be implemented if growth and inflation deteriorate rapidly.
Minutes of the FOMC Meeting
- Several officials argued that policy flexibility is necessary.
- Many officials have lowered their outlook for the peak interest rate.
- At the March meeting, everyone supported a 0.25% interest rate hike.
- Some officials considered whether it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged.
- Some officials pointed out that wage growth still far exceeds the 2% inflation target rate.
ใปๅฝๅฑ่
ใฏๅดๅ้่ฆใไพ็ตฆใๅคงๅน
ใซไธๅใฃใฆใใใจ่ช่ญ
ใปใคใณใใฌใชในใฏใฏใใ้ซใๅพใใฆใใ
ใปในใฟใใใฏไปๅนดไธญใซ็ฉใใใชใชใปใใทใงใณใไบๆณ
โ
Remarks by key individuals
โซ๏ธใใผใญใณ็ท่ฃ
ใปใณใขใคใณใใฌๆๅถใฎใใใซใใในใใใจใฏใพใ ใใ
ใปใคใณใใฌใฎใใผใฏใฏ้ใใใใใพใ ๅ
ใฏใใ
โซ๏ธใใคใชใผ็ท่ฃ
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has more to do regarding rate hikes.
The strength of the American economy and the rise in inflation rates suggest further efforts towards rate hikes.
There is a possibility of the economy continuing to slow down even without additional rate hikes.
The American economy continues to be robust, with the labor market extremely tight.
Committing to the 2% inflation target and maintaining a resolute stance.
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