かぶざる wrote a post · Apr 12, 2023 17:44

[🇺🇸 Looking back on the American market price 🇺🇸]

✅ Exchange

⚫ ︎ The dollar fell

⚫ ︎ In response to the deceleration in CPI growth, there was a growing observation that the Fed would stop tightening after deciding to raise interest rates in May

○Voices from the Market

⚫ ︎ The fact that the overall inflation rate fell more than expected confirmed the view that interest rate hikes would basically end in 1 more time

⚫ ︎ This doesn't indicate the end of inflation yet

✅ Bonds

⚫ ︎ yield decline

⚫ ︎ It was anticipated that there is a possibility that monetary tightening will be stopped once after the interest rate hike in May

○Voices from the Market

⚫ ︎ I don't think CPI will cause the Fed to correct its trajectory

⚫ ︎ Relaxation of price pressure combined with signs of labor market calming down will temporarily spread security in the market

⚫ ︎ It's bright news, but it doesn't mean the end of tightening

✅ Shares

⚫ ︎ decline

⚫ ︎ From the FOMC minutes, a group of Fed officials expressed concerns about the liquidity crisis of regional banks

⚫ ︎ In the FOMC minutes, it became known that in the end it was concluded that priority would be given to dealing with inflation

○Voices from the Market

⚫ ︎ In the minutes of the proceedings, it became clear that the Fed is still concerned about the bank crisis and high prices

⚫ ︎ I expect inflation trends to become even more clear with PPI on the 13th

✅ How to capture CPI

⚫ ︎ The fact that the overall inflation rate has slowed more than expected supports the view that it will basically end with one more interest rate hike

⚫ ︎ If the inflation rate grew more than expected, there was a possibility that additional interest rate increases would be decided in June, so the market was extremely cautious, but growth in the overall inflation rate slowed drastically from 6.0% to 5.0% from the previous year

⚫ ︎ If this trend continues and the economy decelerates rapidly, there will be room for interest rate cuts later in the year

⚫ ︎ I don't think the Fed will switch to interest rate cuts by the end of the year, so it will only implement interest rate cuts by the end of the year when growth and inflation deteriorate rapidly

✅ FOMC minutes

・Several officials have argued that policy flexibility is necessary

・Many officials have lowered their peak interest rate forecasts

・At the March meeting, everyone supported a 0.25% interest rate hike

・Several officials have examined whether it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged

・Several officials pointed out that wage growth is still far above a rate consistent with the 2% inflation target

・Officials recognize that labor demand greatly exceeds supply

・The risk of inflation is leaning higher

・Staff anticipate a calm recession by the end of this year

✅ Remarks by dignitaries

⚫ ︎ Governor Birkin

・There is still work to be done to curb core inflation

・The peak of inflation has passed, but there is still a long way to go

⚫ ︎ Governor Daily

・Does the Fed need to do more with regard to interest rate hikes

・The strength of the US economy and the rise in the inflation rate suggest further efforts to raise interest rates

・There is a possibility that the economy will continue to slow even if there are no additional interest rate hikes

・The US economy continues to be strong, and the labor market is extremely tight

・Commit to the 2% inflation target and maintain a firm stance

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かぶざる

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