I feel like FRC is a trap
Reasons why I think $First Republic Bank (FRC.US)$ is a trap:
They postponed their initial earnings. It was supposed to be this week. Generally companies don't do this for good reasons.
While other regional banks have shown that their net deposit loss was rather small and that the bleeding has stopped, FRC is on the extreme end. They had to be rescued. This makes me think their net deposit loss is much greater but obviously the market has priced that in to some extent. But the question is how much. If it's greater than 40% of its deposits, then I think that's bearish.
Something unique about FRC is that it has a significant wealth management business. We saw that they lost of a lot employees here. If we get insight as to how much assets have left, that can be really bad for future earnings.
Nothing to do with immediate earnings, but it might get removed from the S and P index soon due to its financials.
To be bullish on FRC, you would have to assume that deposits are slowly growing again and they will soon reinstate their suspended dividends. I just don't see that happening. The only thing bullish about this stock is that it has a lot of short interest.
All in all, too much risks. Seems like there are safer plays with regional banks without the risks like KRE index or $PacWest Bancorp (PACW.US)$ .
They postponed their initial earnings. It was supposed to be this week. Generally companies don't do this for good reasons.
While other regional banks have shown that their net deposit loss was rather small and that the bleeding has stopped, FRC is on the extreme end. They had to be rescued. This makes me think their net deposit loss is much greater but obviously the market has priced that in to some extent. But the question is how much. If it's greater than 40% of its deposits, then I think that's bearish.
Something unique about FRC is that it has a significant wealth management business. We saw that they lost of a lot employees here. If we get insight as to how much assets have left, that can be really bad for future earnings.
Nothing to do with immediate earnings, but it might get removed from the S and P index soon due to its financials.
To be bullish on FRC, you would have to assume that deposits are slowly growing again and they will soon reinstate their suspended dividends. I just don't see that happening. The only thing bullish about this stock is that it has a lot of short interest.
All in all, too much risks. Seems like there are safer plays with regional banks without the risks like KRE index or $PacWest Bancorp (PACW.US)$ .
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Wen-Wen : I choose to live in denial
102597866 : I’m sure they are postponing to generate plans to give investors greater confidence. Rather than rush to give data without plans to fix things…or maybe they are securing more funds or investments from others?
3LuBenLaMa3 : Why is the FRC opinion posted on PACW? Go back to FRC
Scorched earf : Feelings don’t work in the stock market