Week 1: Measuring the earnings of key companies

Perhaps sorting out the logic every week will help increase excess returns? I will also try to write and see how long I can last:

Current holdings: Anhui Expressway, Expressway, Mercury Home Textiles, Futu Holdings, Huafa Property, China Unicom (H);

This year’s earnings are as follows: Hong Kong and US stocks are about 35%, and pure A shares are about 5-10%.

From the tracking situation of each position:

The first quarter report will be released next week. It is estimated that the entire first quarter report and second quarter report will be quite good. The downturn in Shanghai in the second quarter of 2022 will also provide a relatively low base for the Yangtze River Delta high-speed sector, which will drive some growth effects.

The acquisition case is very disgusting, greatly diluting the EPS, and you must vote against it, but the market will be relatively short-sighted, and it will fade over time, because on the whole, regardless of the fact that the management is not reliable, the asset situation of Wantong The current cycle of the industry is perfect, and the current dividend rate will be quite high under the 70% dividend commitment, which has a relatively strong allocation value for dividend funds.

If it is said that it will fall, it will not continue to fall. If it rises, it is expected that the interim report will be a better cashing node;

In terms of income, even if it is so greatly diluted at present, assuming that after the acquisition is completed, the company's EPS = 1.25 Hong Kong dollars, the current stock price is 7.99 Hong Kong dollars, 70% dividends, the dividend rate is 10.95% before tax, and it can still rise to 7%. 12.5 Hong Kong dollars per share, at least at present, there is still room for dozens of points, so hold it for the time being.

The disclosure of the financial reports of the three major operators is over, and no major problems have been seen so far. The capital expenditure of 6G is currently in the foreseeable future. Capex ramp-up for telecom infrastructure is significant;

Judging from the current situation of China Unicom, it is no problem to estimate a profit of 20 billion yuan in 2023. With a 55% dividend payout, the current market value is 168 billion yuan, and the estimated pre-tax dividend rate is 6.54%. If it rises to 5%, it will be about 15% % increase, including the dividend return, about 20% return;

The variables are: 1. The speed of advancing depreciation; 2. The decline in impairment; 3. The increase in dividend payout ratio;

If there is no significant improvement in these, then some positions can be unloaded at around 7 yuan this year;

Futu’s continuous repurchases and cancellations are equivalent to large dividends. At present, the total share capital is almost back to the eve of the last round of large-scale issuance. I don’t know if there will be repurchases in the near future. before the rise.

Then according to the current growth of the number of effective users, once a bull market appears, the EPS will most likely exceed the conversion level of Q1 in 2021, and returning to 200 is ok, so I plan to hold it all the time, and I will sell some PUT later if I have a chance. For the time being Do not sell calls, a brokerage firm can continuously repurchase and write off the equity, basically laying the foundation for the stock price to regain its peak in the new bull market.

The new management has changed, and the background is basically Huafa Real Estate. The executives of Huafa Holdings have been replaced. It is estimated that the synergy with the real estate will be strengthened. As for what will be done, I have to go to the shareholders meeting to ask.

If the company wakes up early and wants to pay dividends, the stock price will skyrocket. If it is still like this, it is really bad.

Mercury estimates that Q1 is average in general, but the capital expenditure of this industry is small and the competition pattern is good. At present, consumption is still in the early stage of recovery, and the plan is to wait for consumption to recover before cashing in. At present, the problem is not big, the management is reliable, and it will be released next week. The annual report, the performance of consumer goods in 2022 is not very good, so there is not much expectation for the performance of the annual report, and more expectations are whether the dividend payout ratio can be increased.

Looking at the current market, Hong Kong stocks are likely to be in the bottom range overall. The lack of growth is related to the fact that the overall performance of listed companies has not continued to be fulfilled. Regardless of whether it is deflation or the recovery of the debate, at least EPS must continue to increase to bring sustainable returns. At present, my preliminary The judgment is that Hong Kong stocks are at the bottom.

I was reading "Three-Body Problem" recently, and it mentioned that a group of people exhausted everything to calculate how the three suns work. Thinking about investment, why is it exhausting everything to calculate the performance of the company? Who knows how the market will evolve in the later stage? This is just like in probability. Only by continuously superimposing "conditional probability" can we have a greater chance of winning in long-term investment, but everything still has a high degree of uncertainty.

The century-old family trust will basically not bet on one country to hold assets. After the end of this round of Chinese assets, it still needs to carry out diversified allocation. Bring a steady stream of cash flow supplement.