FRC - best scenario
2022 year end assets: $212B
2022 year end receivables: $158B
2022 year end cash position: $54B
(guess) 03-2023 cash position before crisis: $60B (approximate)
(Source somewhere present) 03-16-2023 bank run: $24B (source present somewhere)
(FRC) As of March 15, 2023, the Bank had a cash position of approximately $34 billion, not including the $30 billion of uninsured deposits from Bank of America, Citigroup, etc.
=> so, $60B(cash position before crisis, approximate) - $24B(withdrawal, approximate) = $34B(FRC)
Math checks out.
(FRC) From March 10 to March 15, 2023, Bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve varied from $20 billion to $109 billion at an overnight rate of 4.75%.
=> So, when the crisis started, FRC borrowed $109B to fully cover all deposits and as withdrawals weakened, its borrowing decreased to $20B. Somewhere here, it got leaked to the media, bank run was in the magnitude of $70B instead of $24B. I THINK $70B figure was the borrowing from Federal Reserve at some point and it got erroneously interpreted as bank run. This is my biggest guess.
So, the best scenario would be
bank run was about $24B instead of $70B
$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ and other banks put $30B because $First Republic Bank (FRC.US)$ did not need it after all and all other banks knew they'd get it back because FRC did not need it anyway. This is huge. Magnus Billing, CEO of Alecta, got fired after losing $2B over SVB failure. No CEO would provide billion dollars, putting his job in danger.
2022 year end receivables: $158B
2022 year end cash position: $54B
(guess) 03-2023 cash position before crisis: $60B (approximate)
(Source somewhere present) 03-16-2023 bank run: $24B (source present somewhere)
(FRC) As of March 15, 2023, the Bank had a cash position of approximately $34 billion, not including the $30 billion of uninsured deposits from Bank of America, Citigroup, etc.
=> so, $60B(cash position before crisis, approximate) - $24B(withdrawal, approximate) = $34B(FRC)
Math checks out.
(FRC) From March 10 to March 15, 2023, Bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve varied from $20 billion to $109 billion at an overnight rate of 4.75%.
=> So, when the crisis started, FRC borrowed $109B to fully cover all deposits and as withdrawals weakened, its borrowing decreased to $20B. Somewhere here, it got leaked to the media, bank run was in the magnitude of $70B instead of $24B. I THINK $70B figure was the borrowing from Federal Reserve at some point and it got erroneously interpreted as bank run. This is my biggest guess.
So, the best scenario would be
bank run was about $24B instead of $70B
$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ and other banks put $30B because $First Republic Bank (FRC.US)$ did not need it after all and all other banks knew they'd get it back because FRC did not need it anyway. This is huge. Magnus Billing, CEO of Alecta, got fired after losing $2B over SVB failure. No CEO would provide billion dollars, putting his job in danger.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Haymaker78 : So what price would you think FRC will trade at if your numbers are accurate?