Awaiting Q1 GDP Results: Can US Economy Fend Off Recession Fears?

U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q4 2022, with inventory investment and consumer spending being the main contributors and housing investment representing a drag.

Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Capital collapsed due to stresses on regional banks in Q1 2023.
Stocks performed well due to increased liquidity provided by central banks, with S&P 500 up 6.5%.
The bond market showed signs of an impending recession.
The level of business activity has shown resilience although recent U.S. economic statistics were mixed.
New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods increased by 3.2% mom in March, while flash S&P Global PMIs revealed an increase in both manufacturing and service activity in April.
The housing market showed signs of bottoming out during the quarter, with new house sales going up by 9.6% mom in March.
Industrial production grew 0.4% mom in March 2023, exceeding expectations.
Retail sales were down 1% in March, worse than expected.
The labor market remains tight, but there are some early signs of softening with nonfarm payrolls being the lowest since December 2020, and initial unemployment claims ticking up recently.