What to Expect in the Week Ahead (AAPL, MRNA and AMC Earnings; a Fed Decision, April Jobs Data)

It will be another big week of first-quarter earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies about to report. The economic calendar will include a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and the latest jobs data.

The economic event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy decision on Wednesday afternoon. Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in an increase of 0.25 percentage point in the federal-funds rate. The European Central Bank is expected to follow with the same move on Thursday.

There will also be plenty of data to parse. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the March Job Openings And Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday, then the April jobs report on Friday. Economists are forecasting a decline in both job openings and hiring. The forecast is for a gain of 180,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 236,000 in March.

Other notable economic data coming out this week will include the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Services Purchasing Managers' Index for April on Monday, then the Services equivalent on Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 46.7 reading, roughly even with the March data. The index has had five consecutive readings below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 9.5 million job openings on the last business day of March, 431,300 fewer than in February.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. There is a 85% chance the FOMC raises the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5%-5.25%, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for the economy to add 143,000 private-sector jobs.

The ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 51.8 reading, slightly higher than the March figure. The services sector continues to hold up better than the manufacturing sector with only one reading below the expansionary level of 50 since May of 2020.

The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.25%. Traders are pricing in two more 25 basis-point-hikes after this meeting as the euro zone's inflation has proved to be more stubborn than in the U.S.

The BLS releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast an increase of 180,000 in nonfarm payrolls, following a 236,000 gain in March. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 3.5% to 3.6%.