iamiam wrote a post · May 2, 2023 12:38

UPDATE May 2

May Day!...

oh, that was yesterday 😄

Wow have I been busy. I haven't been able to make posts. I'm exhausted and fall asleep the second I stop moving 😴

The markets are waiting on J Pows' speech tomorrow. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) is released half an hour after open. Because of this, I would not trust any market movement until this news is released. Overall, I would expect the markets to go to "neutral" before FOMC presser. Neutral can be flat, but I prefer the 5 day moving average as neutral (the 5 day moving average price is where I expect the markets to end the day)

$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$

The 5 day MA is often where the markets end going into possible catalysts.

Now, about the catalyst (FOMC). The .25 basis point hike is almost certain. What will move the markets is the J Pow press conference. What he says about the future will move markets. The bulls are listening for the word "pause." I do not see a FED pivot, nor do I see them being dovish. That said, I could see a rally. Mainly because I want QQQ to reach the 330 target I've had since the start of the run. If it doesn't, that's ok. It just makes a cleaner chart if it does.

I see a decline approaching, a big one, but we may finish the move to 325-330 before the fall.

On futures, the trading is in a tight range, I expect this to continue until JOLTS.

lots of stocks looked bullish, and many have bullish set up alerts ⚠️ (on moomoo Explore feature)

Most of the bullish alerts came from the ENERGY and BIO PHARM sectors.

I expect another bullish move, but short lived and reversed quickly. Could we have topped? Yes! we absolutely may have topped, I just don't think so.

The DOW is in a downtrend, I see more downside to 33950 before finding support. $E-mini Dow Futures(JUN5) (YMmain.US)$

On a shorter time frame, there is a tight trading range.

The Nasdaq is different. The NQ remains bullish, although a healthy pullback would be ok. $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN5) (NQmain.US)$

on the hourly there is downside, at least until JOLTS.

13240 is my support, with 13360 as the resistance today. the 5 day MA is 13150.

in what could be a boring day, we may get some whiplash. again, I'm looking for upside, maybe closing out the week, but we have run hot, so a pullback is healthy. Just watch support 12950. If that breaks, the market has problems.

Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise

and as always

Good Luck