Energy storage track set off a capital boom, giants take turns to increase the code of new energy storage

A few days ago, Tesla announced the first quarter of 2023 report. Compared to the downward spiral of the car business, Tesla's energy revenue is soaring: in the first quarter, the company's energy storage battery installations soared 360 percent year-on-year.

And not long ago, Tesla just announced a new energy storage super factory in Shanghai, which is planned to be used to produce Tesla's ultra-large commercial energy storage batteries (Megapack).

In fact, since this year, nearly 20 companies upstream and downstream of the new energy storage industry chain have announced their latest energy storage project construction plans, and many places such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Changsha, Foshan, Dongguan and Hefei have also ushered in favorable energy storage policies.

From the industry track and development stage, the current energy storage industry is still in the primary stage, and the industry predicts that the market size will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2030.

New energy storage into focus

The so-called energy storage, in layman's terms, is "to store energy, and then release it when you want to use", technically mainly divided into electricity, heat and hydrogen storage, etc..

Different energy storage technologies have different parameters such as power and discharge time, so it is necessary to choose the optimal technical route according to the actual application scenario.

The mainstream technology route in the market is pumped storage and lithium-ion battery technology. Pumped storage is currently the largest installed capacity energy storage technology due to its advantages of mature technology and large capacity, but due to its long construction cycle, unfavorable ecological environment, limited geographic resources and other factors, it cannot meet the growing demand for energy storage in the future and needs to develop new energy storage technologies.

According to EESA statistics, as of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of global power energy storage (new type) reached 48.8GW/101.0GWh. Among the new energy storage technologies, lithium-ion battery energy storage accounts for about 91.2% of the installed capacity and has the most rapid development momentum.

Renewable energy installed capacity continues to expand, the choice of future energy storage technology route has become the focus of market attention. Industry insiders said that long-time energy storage technology is an important direction for the development of energy storage, and the demand is becoming more urgent. Long-time energy storage refers to the continuous discharge time of not less than 4 hours of energy storage technology, the current long-time energy storage technology blossoms, industry entry enterprises significantly increased, the market development space is huge, it is recommended to focus on liquid flow energy storage technology, is expected to become another hot area of investment and financing.

From the dimension of technology evolution, sodium power can become an important supplement to lithium power in the future. According to USGS (United States Geological Survey) data, lithium resources, although large in production, are unevenly distributed and mainly concentrated in the lithium triangle countries of South America. Compared with lithium resources, sodium resources are large and widely distributed, while having cost advantages. Although the current decline in lithium will have a certain impact on the industrialization of sodium, in the long run, sodium in some cost-sensitive but less cycle times sensitive areas, the application potential is greater, the sodium industry is expected to achieve a release in 2025.

According to a new report released by market research firm Bloomberg NEF, the global energy storage market is expected to reach $620 billion by 2030. Among them, lithium-ion batteries and polymer fluid batteries are the two dominant technology areas, accounting for more than 70% of the global energy storage market. In addition, due to the rapid development of renewable energy, the green energy storage market will become a major growth point in the future.

Cross-border players are coming

A windfall means there is capital, and capital attracts many players. Participants are mixed, the track only see the noise, no direction. This is the current situation of the energy storage market.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, the domestic energy storage track completed a total of 31 financing, 65 in 2022, the first quarter of 2023 has been completed 14, the number of financing is growing rapidly.

In addition to itself in the field of energy storage has been laid out for a long time of new energy companies, many industries are hoping to come to share a piece of the pie. After all, in the face of such a masterless trillion dollar market, who all want to be the first to eat crabs.

Not long ago, Tesla announced a new energy storage super factory in Shanghai, planned for the production of Tesla ultra-large commercial energy storage batteries (Megapack). The plant is scheduled to open in the third quarter of 2023 and start production in the second quarter of 2024. The initial planning annual production of commercial energy storage batteries up to 10,000 units, energy storage scale of nearly 40GWh, the future will be for the global market supply.

Some industry analysts believe that Tesla Megapack factory in Shanghai, for China's energy storage industry, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

On the one hand, unlike many To B domestic energy storage manufacturers, Tesla is a consumer brand, which will help to further enhance the awareness of domestic consumers about the energy storage industry and help to further heat up the energy storage concept in the public opinion arena, thus driving the capital market attention.

On the other hand, with Tesla's strength, it will definitely force Chinese companies to look up to it and is destined to have a catfish effect. Although it may pose pressure on Chinese companies in the short term, the entry of foreign investors will definitely accelerate the maturity of the Chinese energy storage market.

Since 2022, nearly 30 companies have crossed the border, with cross-border players covering education, textiles, Internet, games, jewelry, home appliances, food and other industries. Before Huawei joined in a big way and signed a 2000MWh energy storage system in Turkey in one breath; after that there is the home appliance field Midea Group step by step, high-profile launch of a variety of energy storage thermal management products. What's more, there is no relationship at all, such as black sesame, Sheng Hong Group ......

In this regard, some industry insiders believe that the enthusiasm of the capital market, on the one hand, stems from the bullishness of the new energy, energy storage track; on the other hand, some of the traditional business growth encountered bottlenecks, forced to change lanes to overtake the car.

Optimistic view, although certain segments of the track has run out of head enterprises, but the energy storage market pattern has not yet been set, new entrants still have opportunities.

Business model to be mature

As the global energy storage market continues to expand and energy storage technology continues to develop, the future of energy storage technology is very promising. It is expected that by 2035, the global energy storage market will reach more than $1 trillion, becoming a new driver of global economic growth.

However, in the face of the hot industrial investment, the secondary market is underperforming. Since the beginning of 2023, the A-share energy storage sector has continued to fall, triggering investors' concern that in addition to the overcapacity that may be brought about by the intensive project launch, it is more that the energy storage industry still lacks a clear and mature business model and market mechanism in the country, and there is a certain risk to the sustainable development of the industry.

With Europe and the United States rely more on market-driven different, China's energy storage industry's high boom is mainly driven by policy. In order to encourage renewable energy power generation enterprises to participate in the construction of peaking resources in the market, the National Energy Board issued a document in August 2021 proposing that the scale beyond the guaranteed grid connection of grid enterprises initially allocate peaking capacity in accordance with the hook ratio of 15% of power, and priority is given to grid connection in accordance with the hook ratio of more than 20%. Local policies generally require mandatory storage for new energy projects in proportion to 5% to 20% of the installed capacity. Under the policy stimulation, the energy storage market achieved explosive growth.

However, if the policy does not require mandatory storage, few power generation enterprises are willing to take the initiative to allocate energy storage at this stage, the core reason being the high cost of energy storage.

As the energy storage industry is in the early stage of development, the maturity of the industry chain is low, and the manufacturers are working separately and have not yet produced synergy, the price of energy storage system is still high. At the same time, China's power market construction is in its infancy, the market mechanism is difficult to accurately reflect the multiple values of new energy storage, new energy storage to participate in the market revenue in a single way, has not yet formed a sustainable business model. Although the main profit model of energy storage manufacturers is relatively clear, but the road to profit from energy storage power plant investment and construction has not yet gone through.

Therefore, some industry analysts believe that cost reduction is the key key to open the treasure of the new energy storage industry, and the realization of this goal also needs to rely on institutional reform and business model innovation. The current business model of energy storage projects is still unclear, the application of multiple is not yet mature, in the "looks beautiful" stage. To speed up the construction of the electricity market system, clarify the status of the new energy storage independent business entity, strengthen the new energy storage price mechanism research, to create a good market environment. Support enterprises on the basis of large-scale manufacturing capacity, continue to extend their tentacles to the downstream applications, deep participation in diversified application scenarios and business model innovation, and seek industrial breakthroughs in all aspects.