The Week Ahead Beginning May 8

I haven't been getting posts out on a daily basis. Lately I have been much too tired. This week has some big events starting Wednesday and then again on Thursday with CPI and PPI. I made a post over the summer where i predicted this moment. The moment where the FED and pundits claim a victory over inflation. I said they will say "see inflation is coming down, and see how much better it is"...

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” Orwell's 1984, released in 1949.

If Friday wasn't a direct admission that they lie, I don't know what else to call it. Employment numbers were revised down by over 100k jobs!!! But why would a government agency lie about the employment numbers heading into an election cycle??? 🤣🤣🤣🤣

OK, now that I'm done laughing, let me break it down. The economy is wrecked, there is no soft landing, and there is only future pain. The FED can either try to tame inflation (not possible during DEGLOBALIZATION, if we are going to make our own products the cost of moving manufacturing and supply is increased and is no longer offset by cheaper labor, in other words the US can no longer export inflation). So the FED is left to bring a number down that can not be brought down, not to 2%, not ever. They will not say this until there is no choice (funny how government works that way.) Everything the government wants to change goes from "That's a terrible idea and the people will never accept that" to "The new rules for XYZ have been released by government agency XYZ." THIS IS THE WAY IT IS AND YOU HAVE NO CHOICE. your choice was taken away in 1913 and again in 1973. Now, you have no property nor rights and no recourse to an overpowering uncontrolled government. Don't believe me, answer this question: Who do you turn to when the government says you're guilty against it? Who will hear your complaint? Who will decide your fate? What choice do you the individual actually have? Do you have the ability to not comply? I worked managing government grant and loan money, and you are told where that money goes, no matter how corrupt stupid redundant or unnecessary that money is. As an example, I managed a 300-million dollar project that the citizens voted down on 3 separate occasions. It was never passed or approved. Yet it was built at taxpayer expense. Who decided that? the local government did, and what recourse did the people have? none, what are they going to do? Who do they complain to? Their property taxes just go up, and they pay it or go to jail. What a free country we live in. And just so I can dash any hope of it getting better. Taxes are only going up, as the neverending quest for more money continues. As the dollar gets devalued globally  (a result of DEGLOBALIZATION, as less and less countries hold dollars in the form of treasuries)  the money to sustain the 32 trillion dollars of debt must increasingly come from the US citizenship. Once again, another real reason for an open border, the US needs workers (we've become too arrogant to work labor/service jobs) and an increased tax base (they WILL NOT TAX THE RICH, EVER, PERIOD, THE END, any politician claiming they will lies. they've said it for 70 years and never done it, Biden even gave them tax breaks by reinstating SALT). This is the future, and it is bleak and certain. Get what you can, while you can before there is nothing left. This leads me to my other plea, grow your own food, if you can do nothing else, find a way to grow your own food, or join a food co-op. These are great communities of growers trading and selling their goods between each other... Get a duel citizenship if you're an American citizen. The US won't honor it, but who cares? You need options to go to when the US locks down. "But iam the US could never lock citizens in" again who's going to challenge them, and during covid they did, and you were all on board with it. All they have to do is declare another emergency. Maybe we can't fly because of climate change? who knows how they will do it? Just know they will do it. America is a giant penal colony. You just haven't realized it yet. There's a warden with prison guards and they use the prisoners to keep the rest of the prisoners in line. America never stopped being a slave colony, when we vote we are presented two options that keep us a slave colony.

OK, enough rambling, it's RALLY time.

But do we get a small pullback to enter this rally?

We can either run flat and let the MAs and bollingers catch up, or drop into the 13230 range. However it pulls back, 13400+ is the next upside target, eventually reaching 13500+.

First, we should get a cooldown by either trading flat or a minor decline before resuming the uptrend.... Overall, iam bearish, this is a strong counter trend in a bear market. it started in October and should end here near 330.

In this rally, there are some stocks set up to fly.

Tesla broke the downtrend line and should push to the 50MA (green MA line) and fill the gap near 182.

bounced off the bottom, should get a strong push to return to the 50MA (green MA).

We could get a pullback on the Nasdaq before resuming the upside.

VIX is currently hitting against resistance. I expect something s8milar to 4/25 where VIX spiked then retreated as the market rallied.

It's NatGas time! Accumulation for next year should start soon as well as fertilizer use.

FERTILIZERS

it should be a wild ride, can we reach 330 by Wednesday? or do the markets pullback and then launch on Wednesday? The market moves how the market moves, until it breaks support, this is a Buy the dip, but carefully as this should be the last push up before failure.

Be Safe, Be Careful,  Be Wise

and as always

Good Luck

I'm getting some confidence from my girl scout cookies