[๐บ๐ธ Looking back on the American market price ๐บ๐ธ]
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Exchange
* The dollar remains stable against major currencies
* The year-on-year growth rate of CPI decelerated slightly, but the Fed's monetary policy outlook was not clearly shown
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ใVoices from the Market
* There was no indication whether the Fed would need to cut interest rates at a rapid pace
* Observations on future volatility tend to decline
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Bonds
* Lower yields
* Concerns about upward pressure on prices in the US have been dispelled, and a sense of security has spread
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ใVoices from the Market
* Even though the numbers were as expected, stronger numbers were expected, so the market price reacted
* It can be seen that there is still a long way to go before the price target set by the Fed at 2%
* In addition to concerns surrounding the regional banking sector, if the federal debt ceiling issue is not resolved, the possibility that the Fed will suspend interest rate hikes will increase further
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Shares
* Muddled movements
* A slowdown in inflation was confirmed, and interest rate hike suspension observations increased
* High-tech stocks were bought due to falling interest rates, but concerns about a recession smoldered
* FCNCA was significantly higher due to deposit balances exceeding expectations
* Alphabet was bought by announcing new language models etc. with the interactive artificial intelligence โBirdโ
* ABNB declined sharply due to disgust with weak sales forecasts for the second quarter
* Disney's adjusted earnings per share fell short of expectations due to quarterly financial results, and the number of paid subscribers to Disney Plus for video distribution also fell short of expectations, so it was sold in overtime trading
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ใVoices from the Market
* Good content in terms of CPI finally falling below 5%
* Up 4.9% from the previous year, and the core is still up 5.5%
* The content is not enough to push the stock exchange rate to a level where it is thought that it has escaped the worst period
* Although it is a sign of a slight sense of disinflation, the authorities need to be convinced that the inflation rate will return to 2%, so there has been no improvement
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ใThe CPI is summarized in this note.
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Voices from the market about CPI
ใปRent-related inflation indicators show clear signs of easing price pressure and will contribute to a decline in overall CPI.
ใปInflation did not show as much overheating as expected, and there is no doubt that it induced a sense of relief, strengthening the basis for the suspension of interest rate hikes.
ใปThe market has been quite adamant about suspending interest rate hikes, but even with the hiatus, the economy is still suppressive, and quantitative tightening remains.
ใปAlthough it was as expected, the 0.4% increase from the previous month is still a high figure, indicating that keeping growth from the previous year to less than 3% is a difficult issue.
ใปCore inflation growth is still large, and short-term interest rate cut observations will recede, but signs that service inflation has cooled down confirm that interest rate hikes will stop in June or the end of the year.
ใปFurther significant progress will be needed before policy makers are ready to declare their mission completed.
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Economic indicators
April CPI Core Index (YoY)
Expected 5.5% Result 5.5% Previous time 5.6%
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April CPI Core Index (month-on-month)
Expected 0.4% Result 0.4% Previous 0.4%
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April CPI (YoY)
Expected 5.0% Result 4.9% Last time 5.0%
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April CPI (month-on-month)
Expected 0.4% Result 0.4% Previous 0.1%
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