What to Expect in the Week Ahead (WMT, BABA and TGT Earnings; Retail Sales, Fed Speeches)

First-quarter earnings season continues this week with retailers making up a larger share of reports. Economic releases will include retail sales and housing-market data.

The economic-data highlight of the week will be the Census Bureau's retail sales data for April on Tuesday. Consumer spending forecast to rise 0.8% from a month earlier, verus a decline of 1.0% in March.

Other data will include the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April on Thursday, and several indicators of the U.S. housing market: The National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index for May on Tuesday, the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for April on Wednesday, and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales for April on Thursday.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for May. Economists forecast a 45 reading, even with the April data. The index has rebounded sharply from December's 31 reading, as home builders have turned cautiously optimistic, due in part to limited existing-home inventory. "Currently, one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared with historical norms of a little more than 10%," according to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for April. Consumer spending is expected to increase 0.8% month over month, while sales excluding autos is seen rising 0.4%. This compares with declines of 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively, in March.

The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for April. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 million housing starts, 20,000 fewer than previously.

The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for April. Economists forecast the index to decline 0.5% month over month, following a 1.2% drop in March. The LEI is at its lowest level since November of 2020, and the think tank expects a recession starting in mid-2023.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for April. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million homes sold, slightly lower than in March. The median existing-home price was $375,700 in March, down 0.9% from a year prior, and the second consecutive annual decline.