NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 138.850 TSLA
Tesla
-- 355.840 BABA
Alibaba
-- 124.730 INTC
Intel
-- 23.600 PLTR
Palantir
-- 119.160 
Eating, drinking, playing, and having fun, a slight decline, could it be the final straw that crushes the US economy?
Since the beginning of this year, the economic recession has been like a cry wolf, calling many times but never actually happening. The unemployment rate is at a historic low, and wage growth remains strong. Will the United States really go into recession?
In my opinion, the American people's indulgence in food, drink, and entertainment may be the last straw that breaks the economy. It can also be said that it is the lifeline tightly held by the American economy on the edge of a cliff. The so-called "mild recession" expectations may likely lead to a serious recession.
Since the beginning of the year, if you were to ask which stocks have been soaring, most people would probably say: definitely $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ ， $C3.ai (AI.US)$ ， $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , and $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ， $Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$ such as big technology and various AI concept stocks.
But I'll give a few other examples:
$Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US)$ Since the beginning of this year, it has risen over 40%.
$Shake Shack (SHAK.US)$ it has risen over 60%.
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ it has risen over 50%.
In addition, $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ ， $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ all have good gains. $Disney (DIS.US)$ Although streaming platforms have been struggling, theme parks are exceptionally popular. Without exception, they are all about food, drinks, and entertainment, with almost no other purposes.
On the other hand, electronic products, autos, and performance are dismal, driving the economic development. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Intel (INTC.US)$ Wait, compared to last year, there's a big difference. For example, retail trade $Target (TGT.US)$ $Costco (COST.US)$ , it's not easy days, and department stores, such as $Macy's (M.US)$ , the stock prices have fallen back to the last century.![]()
, they might end up like $SEARS HOLDINGS CORP (SHLDQ.US)$ and $Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBYQ.US)$ Gradually heading towards bankruptcy.
Speaking of a side note, the largest chain of mother and baby stores in the USA, one is baby r us, the other is buy buy baby. Their parent companies have both gone bankrupt.![]()
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Who did the kids offend?![]()
Returning to the main topic, American consumerism is a bit like a pre-apocalyptic frenzy. Although it drives the economy, it is not sustainable. For the US economy to grow, it needs to rely on the technology industry to drive it.
Looking back at the past 20 years, the internet has indeed propelled the prosperity of the US economy. However, before the year 2000, when the internet was just emerging, interest rates were also high, but they couldn't stop capital speculation on the bubble. Later, everyone knows that the bubble burst in the dot-com industry. After the capital speculation, many companies disappeared overnight, while the surviving ones took $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ over a decade to restore their stock prices to the previous high. And the hard currency that dominated the technology industry back then also took over a decade to reach new heights. Indeed, if you had held on without selling, you would have had a 20-fold return now. But how many people can hold onto a stock for ten years without selling? And how many investments go without seeing a return for ten years? $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ I believe that AI today is similar to the internet in 1999. If AI continues to develop, there is a high probability that it will lead the US economy to be a global leader in the next 20 years. However, stocks that are severely overvalued, if bought at the peak, may take many years to recover.
in over a decade to recover.
Before the bubble bursts, it will only get bigger. Those with courage can go in, take a bite, and run away with a big piece of meat, and can also make a lot of money. I'm not that brave, so I'm not playing this game.
And the best investment opportunity at the moment, I think, is long-term bonds. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ The Federal Reserve cannot maintain high interest rates for the long term, and will inevitably have to cut rates. The probability of making money from long-term bonds in the next three years is 100%, no risk, the more they fall, the more opportunity. As for the stock market, at the time of the .ai bubble burst, or rather the .com bubble burst, the S&P fell for three consecutive years from its high in 2000. It only touched a new high in 2007, then crashed again, and didn't truly recover until 2013.
Will the US stock market from 2022 to 2032 be as bleak as it was from 2001 to 2011? I hope not. However, there are always investment opportunities, even though the S&P didn't rise for those ten years, long-term bonds doubled in value from 2001 to 2011. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
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MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
高贵的阿德莱德 OP : In America today, there is a bubble in almost every asset, from the stock market to real estate, and is even equivalent to the bubble of 2000 and 2008 compounded together. The Fed's interest rate hike this time just squeezed out the bubble. If it can use interest rate hikes to pass on the economic crisis, knock down a major economy, and keep the US from taking blood, then America will be stable again.
mubbiiee : I agree it's not cheap overall, spy 19 times PE is there after all. However, the retail stocks you mentioned, Macy, 3B, etc., were also going downhill; sooner or later, they were killed by flax and other e-commerce businesses. TLT isn't cheap either; it's very likely that it will drop to 90 or even a bit. There is also a risk that interest rates may fall, but they may never return to a level close to zero, or even 2%. In this way, the TLT you bought at the current price will stay locked in for a long time.
亲切的罗宾 : The analysis is very good, so what do you think is a good entry point for DIS? I think 80-85 is safer
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : tlt will probably continue to fall, but I think it will be difficult to drop to 90. The last time it fell to around 90 was a panic attack. At the time, I didn't know where the end point of the rate hike was. Now that the interest rate hike has come to an end, the certainty is even stronger. If interest rates are raised more than expected in the future, or if interest rates remain high for too long, long-term bonds will fall, but the stock market will be even worse. Once the economy enters a recession, it is still beneficial to bonds due to risk aversion. Short-term bonds have the risk of default, while long-term bonds have no risk of default
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : On the other hand, I also agree that it is impossible for interest rates to drop to zero again in the short term; otherwise, inflation will not be able to hold back. However, if interest rates continue to fall, the economy will collapse; in fact, I am very worried about this. The US economy is already inseparable from low interest rates, and the QE crackdown cannot be stopped![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 亲切的罗宾 : If it were me, I'd wait for technical signals, have a bullish line of volume and short-term moving average, and then enter the market on the right
wantqq123 : Every time I write this much, I just go to the oil pipe and post a video
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : After the debt ceiling is raised, intensive debt issuance in the second half of the year+ if the Federal Reserve actually falls short of expectations for QT+ interest rate cuts, TLT will plummet.
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : If it cannot be cleared out this time, if inflation expectations are completely eliminated and interest rates are cut, there will almost certainly be a second wave. Of course I don't mind eating the band over and over again.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : What you said makes sense; you really need to be aware of this risk. If there is such a sign, the stock market and long-term debt will fall, and they will still have to go back to short-term debt to take refuge