Clearing Ali and buying Adobe
Judging from the stock prices of giants like Ali and Tencent, the domestic economic situation really doesn't look good. Baba had to clear up the deal and lost a little bit of money, so it was considered a contribution to the motherland. Stop losses in a timely manner and drop positions to high-quality stocks.
The recent hot spot in the market is still the AI bubble. I think this bubble can blow again. This week $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Let's wait and see when the financial report comes out. I personally don't think the earnings report will be too bad. After all, Viagra's chip strength is there, and it's still some time until the bubble bursts.
But I'm definitely not going to chase higher positions, so my current few positions are all depressions of the AI concept. My current stock selection strategy is:
The price of profitable value stocks in the AI concept has broken through MA200 but has not reached the sky yet, and the short-term moving average is in a bullish position. According to this standard, the first few major positions are
Adobe cleared the inventory this morning and Ali opened the inventory. As long as Viagra's earnings report doesn't explode, I'll keep holding it.
presently $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ I lost money, but the current 3% dividend rate and monthly dividends are very good, so I'll keep holding it. After a friend reminded me the day before yesterday, I sold part of 102, and today 100 is added back. At that time, the debt ceiling will be raised, and the government will issue bonds. If the Federal Reserve does not accept it, it will take trillions of dollars of capital from the market. Should there be a liquidity crisis in US debt, it would be an excellent opportunity to bottom out. However, since bonds did not rise or fall much, they fell by 5-10% at most (Tesla's intraday fluctuations can sometimes be 5-10%![]()
) I'm too lazy to buy and sell. I think that as early as this winter, and at the latest next summer, the US economy is bound to decline. At that time, Bao Lao Ge will definitely cut interest rates. With a 3% dividend and trading expectations for 2024, I don't think there's anything wrong with that. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ They all traded as expected in 2025![]()
However, don't short Viagra. Maybe Viagra can rise by another 20% before it crashes like 2000, then it's not ruled out that it was a chip like back then $Intel(INTC.US$ The possibility of the same bottom sideways for many years![]()
Why is the stock market rising? Sometimes don't worry about why. Once you see that the bullish pattern is confirmed, buy it first, then slowly think about why. I've been thinking about it for a few days, and I personally think the reason is simple:
1. The real economy is not good; you must not invest;
2. The Federal Reserve is pumping water too slowly, and there is still a lot of hot money;
3. AI concept hype. Tech giants are either engaging in real AI or driving traffic (such as meta) to attract the inflow of hot money;
4. Many institutions are not like us retail investors; they cannot or are unwilling to buy all of their money in short-term treasury bonds or monetary funds, so they can only buy these stocks;
5. Due to too much weight, the market is constantly being pushed up, especially qqq.
As a result, at present, Big Tech is seriously divided from other stocks. Of the S&P 500, more than 400 have actually not increased at all. Let alone the total market value of Russell's 2000 stocks. $Apple(AAPL.US$![]()
A heavy head won't last long. In the future, other stocks will either make up for gains, or big tech stocks will make up for the decline.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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高贵的阿德莱德OP : I think Windows 98 and the internet back then were not inferior to today's AI; they were all revolutionary technological breakthroughs. The stock price of the well-known Intel skyrocketed from 1999-2000 to the point where parents didn't recognize it. So I don't think the possibility that Nvidia's stock price can rise to 350-400 yuan is ruled out. It's just that I personally don't like this kind of speculative hype. People who are good at this kind of game can still go in and have a bite to eat, find someone to take over, and leave the market at a profit
Denkamwe : What are you talking about lol
Disguised Hunter : It's a bubble that always bursts
不可求 Denkamwe: Say something you can't understand
不可求 Disguised Hunter: Yes, it's good
102764470 高贵的阿德莱德OP: Baba, you came out, I also lost a few thousand yuan, and when I saw it, I had some more at the bottom
高贵的阿德莱德OP 102764470: The domestic economic situation is uncertain, and I don't plan to touch China Stock Exchange again for the time being