How long did the stock market take to return to its high point after the crashes of 2000 and 2008?
Although it is currently a bear market caused by inflation, different from the two previous collapses: in 2000 it was the technology bubble, in 2008 it was the financial and real estate bubbles. However, currently, due to too much leakage of brain power from the US government and the Federal Reserve during the epidemic, serious bubbles have emerged in technology, finance, and real estate. If the worst case scenario happens: all bubbles must burst to control inflation, then this collapse is equivalent to the overlay of 2000 and 2008.
Let's take a look at how many years it took for various stocks to emerge from the two collapses and reach new highs:
1. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ In 4 years, 1 year. Absolutely considered fast in technology stocks, thanks to iPhone.
2. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ In 9 years. Because there was no new high in 2007, only the one in 2000 is counted.
3. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ In 14 years.
4. $Intel (INTC.US)$ In 18 years, it was so miserable, so it's called Adou.
At the beginning of this century, owning a computer and access to the internet was definitely the dream of countless people. However, if the bubble is inflated too much, it will only be more tragic after it bursts. Compared to the introduction of the 📱 by Apple, after the bubble bursts, these two companies are basically still doing what they were doing before the bubble burst, and it is difficult for their stock prices to return to their previous highs. It is regrettable.
So, if the ai bubble inflates too much, if $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ stocks rise above 400, and in the future still selling these ai chips, then how many years will it take to reach a new high after the bubble bursts?
Let's take a look at some value stocks:
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$ , 6 years, 1 year.
$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ , 6 years, 4 years.
$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ , 3 years, 3 years
$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ , 0 years, 4 years
$Walmart (WMT.US)$ Outflow for 11 years. It's really tough. I think there's a problem with my operation.
$Target (TGT.US)$ Outflow for 0 years, 3 years.
$Boeing (BA.US)$ Outflow for 4 years, 6 years.
$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ Outflow for 2 years, 1 year. It's truly a good defensive stock.
$3M (MMM.US)$ Outflow for 0 years, 1 year. I can only say that 3m is no longer shining now.
Value stocks are not having a good time, but at least there's some dividend income.
Speaking of s&p 500:
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Outflow for 12 years. Clearly, large cap stocks are underperforming individual stocks.
Finally, let's take a look at the stock market god:
$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ , 1 year, 5 years. The insurance industry is somewhat affected by the financial crisis. But old ginger is still spicy.
If the crisis reappears, there is a high probability that in the coming years, the s&p will significantly underperform high-quality individual stocks.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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70882358 : Any fear of a debt ceiling is a buying opportunity
不可求 70882358 : Because risk and profit are directly proportional
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 70882358 : Short-term bullish, buy on dips
102764470 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : What is bullish
Yun Un Son 102764470 : bullish-it
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : Defense is still the main focus.
I think JNJ can almost open a position.
When it comes to technology, especially chips, “don't go to crowded places” and be careful when stepping on them.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : I personally think JNJ can wait a little longer. Recently, there has been a strong bullish sentiment in the stock market, so there is pressure on defensive stocks to sell, so I sold my account too. You can follow the trend of PFE. Maybe there's an opportunity. I bought some PFEs on a trial basis, mainly to see if this wave of bottoming out can turn into a reversal of the trend
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : Chips are still the most beautiful ones this year. The overrated ones are mainly Nvidia (AMD isn't cheap either), but there are many chip stocks that are still very cheap or not expensive.
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : TSMC, but considering the geographical issue (which is unlikely but the stock price is under pressure), it's still a bit concerned about how many times it has gone in and out
Let's talk about the fact that AMD and Nvidia are going to the Altar. Now a lot of people are looking down on them; there's a big movie tonight.
PF I'll wait a little longer. The logic is that the COVID-19 drug portion should once again affect revenue and the patent cliff. I'm more concerned about these two points.
The drug is in phase 2 (but according to its strength, it should also be fine)
JNJ would be much safer than Pfizer. You and I have different preferences,
The last time you shared about macroeconomics, I agree very much. Few people pay attention to economic topics; they are watching or betting on ups and downs every day.
In the stock market, everything is unknown. I think it's pretty interesting.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : JNJ has a wide range of businesses, so it is more defensive. What I mean is to see signs of short-term bottoming out, then there are signs of a reversal, and it's not too late to go to the bottom again. I went through the bottom of mmm before, and they all fell like that. After that, I was able to continue to fall; I was only able to stop and leave the market.
When it comes to geopolitics, I personally think the Korean peninsula is the most dangerous. The Taiwan Strait conflict is too costly for both sides; everyone is very cautious. TSMC has completely sold itself to the US, which is considered a surrender, and this part of the risk has already been fully assessed, so the stock price is so low. If a conflict on the peninsula affects Samsung first, it may be beneficial to TSMC.