Has the bull market arrived? Let's take a look at this first.
The following discussion is based on this understanding: these 500 companies in the s&p 500 are all the best companies in the USA, and are also the most important companies for the US economy. If you agree, then let's continue the discussion.
Let's first take a look at this etf:
This is the s&p 500 average weighted etf, which is equivalent to buying 0.2% of each of the 500 companies, with equal positions.
Although $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ The increase this year is good, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ The performance is even better, but since this year, rsp hasn't gone up at all. With today's drop, it has already fallen below the price at the beginning of the year.
What does that mean? Besides $Apple (AAPL.US)$ ， $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ ， $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Apart from these heavyweight stocks, more than 400 other companies did not rise, and even fell a lot.
If all 500 companies are excellent, but more than 400 of them do not rise, and even fall, then, is it a bull market or a bear market? It goes without saying.
So this rebound is only for hedging and speculation, focusing on the trading of large technology stocks and AI concepts. How is it possible that the bull market is back? In a true bull market, only junk stocks will decline. So at the beginning, I need to mention that premise: all 500 companies are good companies.
So currently it is a bear market rebound, and we must pay attention to the risks.
It's so cold this spring, and the Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing. I think there will probably be a wave of food crisis by the end of the year. If oil prices rise again at that time, then inflation will completely explode. Baoldie (referring to a person) will probably have a hard time sleeping and eating.
Let's talk about property prices. Recently, long-term interest rates have risen, and my [property] is also floating loss. This will temporarily push up property prices. Why? For people who want to buy a house, quickly make an offer and lock in the interest rate. If you don't lock in the interest rate, it will rise again, and you need to quickly add money to grab a house. With high inflation, wages rise with inflation, and many people believe that property can hedge against inflation - whether this is true or not, as long as people think it is - then property prices will rise. Rent will also continue to rise, forming a spiral of rising property prices, rent, and wages. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Controlling inflation is not happening anytime soon. Instead, I think it is the real economy that cannot hold on.
To control inflation, it's actually still early. I think it is the real economy that cannot sustain itself.
The US economy is indeed difficult, and China is also facing challenges. It's a struggle between the two major powers to see who can hold on longer.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : The RSP has now fallen below ma200, and the moving average has begun to open downward, gradually forming a bearish line. This is a bad sign. If it can't be pulled back in the short term, then this wave of bear market rebound is likely to be over soon. I'm currently bullish on the short term and buy at low prices, but I always wear a seatbelt. If the signs aren't right, I get out of the car quickly.
70158005 : upupup
Shuseido : Thanks for sharing your thoughts..