Crude oil market: what is priced into the current price, and what is not?

Pricing factors for the drop in oil prices over the past year:

1) On the supply side, Russia’s crude oil supply has been in excess in the past year (it has not followed OPEC’s production cuts), Iran + Venezuela’s new supply, and the release of the US strategic oil reserve

2) On the demand side, look at OPEC exports, which peaked in April this year and then declined significantly

3) U.S. recession expectations (probably priced in some, but not entirely) + slower recovery in China

In the future oil market forecast, the market expectation (light blue) is: [oversupply] in the case of a moderate recession, no Russian cut, and China demand miss; Goldman Sachs forecast is still [supply] (dark blue), the reason is that the market has not Price OPEC's determination to cut production further (Goldman's forecast may be too optimistic). It is estimated that the central oil price will be between 70-75 US dollars in the long run.