NVDA vs. TSM: Which Chipmaker Stock is Better?
Chipmaker stocks have soared this year, but some more than others. Unfortunately, one of these stocks may be in a bubble, while the other faces geopolitical tensions, making both look like risky plays despite their exposure to artificial intelligence. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$
At a P/E of 208.5 and a P/S of 38.3, NVIDIA initially looks massively overvalued versus its industry. However, the chipmaker’s five-year mean P/E is about 66.7, while its five-year mean P/S is about 17.7, showing that it typically trades far above its industry. Nonetheless, it seems clear from the headlines about NVIDIA that it’s in a bubble, suggesting a bearish view might be appropriate for now.
This year’s massive rally in NVIDIA shares has made the company into the next $1 trillion company, joining the few blockbuster Big Tech names like Apple and Microsoft in the over-$1 trillion-market-capitalization club. However, that rally also suggests NVIDIA could be a bubble stock, and if there’s one thing all investors know about asset bubbles, it’s that they pop — eventually.
At a P/E of 15.5 and a P/S of 6.4, Taiwan Semiconductor trades at a discount to its industry P/E and in line with its industry P/S. Thus, it looks much more reasonably valued than NVIDIA, especially considering its five-year mean P/S of eight. However, a neutral view might be appropriate in the near term due to the geopolitical overhang for Taiwanese stocks.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has enjoyed a nice 11% lift over the last five days due to NVIDIA’s good news, enjoying their best week in almost a year. TSM is likely to see some sales increase from the AI transition because it manufactures NVIDIA’s chips, but any impact is likely to be modest.
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