Is a debt ceiling solution necessarily a good thing for SOFI?

The debt ceiling and interest rate hikes were two of the major market concerns in early June, with the debt ceiling bill having passed the House and Senate, and the implied probability of no rate hike rising to 75% in June, with many Fed officials, including the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, calling for skipping rate hikes

As traders raised expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will not raise interest rates at its June 13-14 meeting, a large number of Fintech companies gained nicely, such as $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ up 9.2% on Thursday, $Blend Labs, Inc.(BLND)$ up 3.1% and $loanDepot, Inc. (BLND)$ rose 3.1%, and $loanDepot, Inc.

While this does not necessarily mean that interest rates will stop rising, it may go some way to alleviating concerns about consumers and businesses borrowing in a high interest rate environment.

Among other things, interest rate-related companies such as $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ are also up somewhat.

Meanwhile, the debt ceiling deal will benefit stocks in several sectors, including the tax preparation industry, student loans, defense spending and the energy sector, including SOFI.

The proposed debt ceiling bill also ensures that student loan repayments will resume in the fall. This bodes well for SOFI as it could lead to increased demand for student loan refinancing, and the market's optimism lies there.

But at the same time, let's not forget that student loan defaults are likely to rise after the federal government's loan concessions are removed. Given the current high interest rate, high inflation environment, the cost of living is higher therefore there is more pressure on students to repay their loans.

While students in general are less likely to gamble on their personal careers to default, the segment of the population that is relatively likely to default the most may shift from their previous government loans to businesses, increasing the burden on them.

In addition, SOFI's recent shorting ratio also has a rising trend, "short squeeze" brought about by the rise, not necessarily sustainable.