English
Back
Download
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top
Chart Talks: Is Nasdaq Composite entering a rising wedge pattern?
Views 562K Contents 20

Hindsight Bias in the Rising Wedge Pattern

1. Do you think nasdaq composite is entering a rising wedge pattern?
Based on the diagram, the rising wedge pattern is predicting a breakout in Q3 for Nasdaq Composite. I don't think the price reversal or crash will happen. If there's any, it's merely a short correction or pull-back.
I always believe that technical Analysis (TA) needs the support of macro factor. I see many positive macro factors that support a US bull market: AI rally, EV Tax incentives, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the rise of chip makers, EV industry working towards collaboration or win-win, Fed's dovish comment of rate pause, strong US labour market etc. Currently the positive market sentiments overwhelm the negative one at least til end of the year.

2. What other observations do you have from the chart?
I have observed that due overconfidence, some experienced traders often make a common financial mistake called hindsight bias -  selectively choose information to confirm what the target price or price trend (what they believe to be true).
1. Rinsing Wedge patterns don’t always signal a price reversal. While the wedge pattern does illustrate a consolidation taking place, the setup can often prove false, with price movement continuing in its upward direction after the wedge has been fully created. As stated above, macro factors are also equally if not more important.
2. Wedges can take a number of different shapes, and traders may sometimes force a wedge pattern onto a price chart rather than identifying one organically - hindsight bias. Keeping investment journal to review decision making can minimise  hindsight bias.
Hindsight Bias in the Rising Wedge Pattern
Source:
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
1
13
+0
2
Translate
Report
24K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
avatar
ZnWC
Moo Contributor
I reflect trading experience by writing journals. My posts and comments are for education purpose not financial advice.
3607
Followers
107
Following
13K
Visitors
Follow
Discussing
Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context, Show More